On the materials basis of modern society

Significance Modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Over time, these technologies have used a larger and more diverse array of materials. Elemental life cycle analyses yield an understanding of these materials, and a definite concern that arises is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. We studied substitution potential for 62 different metals in their major uses. For a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

[1]  Steven J. Duclos,et al.  DESIGN IN AN ERA OF CONSTRAINED RESOURCES , 2010 .

[2]  R. Solow.  The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics , 2008 .

[3]  Martin Kumar Patel,et al.  The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios , 2013 .

[4]  David Rejeski,et al.  Mars, Materials, and Three Morality Plays: Materials Flows and Environmental Policy , 1997 .

[5]  Thomas E. Graedel,et al.  The omnivorous diet of modern technology , 2013 .

[6]  Eiji Yamasue,et al.  Regional development or resource preservation? A perspective from Japanese appliance exports , 2011 .

[7]  Claude Barbier.  The economics of tungsten , 1971 .

[8]  T. Graedel,et al.  Criticality of non-fuel minerals: a review of major approaches and analyses. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[9]  Richard Sinding-Larsen,et al.  Non-Renewable Resource Issues: Geoscientific and Societal Challenges , 2012 .

[10]  David Cebon,et al.  Materials Selection in Mechanical Design , 1992 .

[11]  T. E. Graedel,et al.  Criticality of the geological copper family. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[12]  T. Prior,et al.  Resource depletion, peak minerals and the implications for sustainable resource management , 2012 .

[13]  Weihua Wang,et al.  Bulk metallic glasses , 2004 .

[14]  Robert U. Ayres,et al.  Industrial Metabolism: Theory and Policy , 2005 .

[15]  Simon Warren,et al.  Methodology of metal criticality determination. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[16]  M. Meyers,et al.  Structural Biological Materials: Critical Mechanics-Materials Connections , 2013, Science.

[17]  G. Mudd.  The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints , 2010 .

[18]  Jonathan M Cullen,et al.  Mapping the global flow of steel: from steelmaking to end-use goods. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  Jonathan M Cullen,et al.  Mapping the global flow of aluminum: from liquid aluminum to end-use goods. , 2013, Environmental science & technology.

[20]  Tao Wang,et al.  Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[21]  T. Graedel,et al.  Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States: 1900–2009 , 2012 .

[22]  Tao Wang,et al.  Patterns of iron use in societal evolution. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[23]  Robert J. Barbara.  Cobalt : policy options for a strategic mineral, September 1982 , 1991 .

[24]  Gus Gunn,et al.  The future of the global minerals and metals sector : issues and challenges out to 2050 , 2012 .

[25]  Elihu F. Bradley,et al.  Superalloys: a technical guide , 1988 .

[26]  Richard Sinding-Larsen,et al.  Non-renewable Resource Issues: Geoscientific and Societal Challenges: An Introduction , 2012 .

[27]  Stefan Bringezu,et al.  The physical dimension of international trade: Part 1: Direct global flows between 1962 and 2005 , 2010 .

[28]  René Kleijn,et al.  Resource constraints in a hydrogen economy based on renewable energy sources: An exploration , 2010 .

[29]  Nikhil Gupta.  Modeling and Simulation in Composite Materials: Integration from Nanostructure to Component-Level Design , 2013 .

[30]  Joseph E. Stiglitz.  Georgescu-Roegen versus Solow/Stiglitz , 1997 .

[31]  V. S. Rotter,et al.  Comparing Growth Rates of Nickel and Stainless Steel Use in the Early 2000s , 2012 .

[32]  T. Graedel,et al.  The “Hidden” Trade of Metals in the United States , 2008 .

[33]  J. Allwood,et al.  What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? , 2011 .

[34]  Valerie M. Thomas,et al.  The Industrial Ecology of Lead and Electric Vehicles , 1997 .