Psychiatry and the Presumption of Expertise: Flipping Coins in the Courtroom

I. PROFESSIONAL LITERATURE ON THE RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF PSYCHIATRIC JUDGMENTS 697 A. The Reliability of Psychiatric Judgments ----------------699 B. The Validity of Psychiatric Judgments . .708 1. The validity of diagnosis 708 2. The validity of predictions of dangerousness ____ 711 3. The validity of predictions of the need for hospitalization and treatment ------------------------------717 4. The validity of predictions of the effect of hospitalization and treatment ----.............-----------718