Evaluating land ecological security and examining its relationships with driving factors using GIS and generalized additive model.

Land ecological security (LES) refers to the environmental health and sustainability of the land resources and ecosystems, which are substantially affected by biophysical and socio-economic factors. We assess the spatiotemporal patterns of LES in Ningbo city on the southeast coast of China from 1975 to 2015 and explore the effects of driving factors. Expert evaluation is used to estimate the LES score for each 2×2km grid and map the patterns by Kriging. Five levels of LES are used: very secure, secure, neutral, insecure and very insecure. A generalized additive model (GAM) captures the relationships between LES and driving factors, and identifies the dominant factors. Our results show that the Ningbo LES has been deteriorating since 1975, and it is now very insecure in Ningbo city center and the central area of the satellite city Cixi. The dominant factors affecting LES are distances to city center (Dcity), district center (Ddistrict) and road networks (Droads), and the moving window built-up area (Dndbi). Among these, Dndbi is most important as inferred by the highest explained deviance of the GAM. This study improves our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of LES in Ningbo and how LES changes. As a result, it provides insight to help local governments optimize land-use configuration, potentially improving the environment and ecosystems and creating a more environmentally friendly city.

[1]  B. Fu,et al.  Ecosystem Services and Management Strategy in China , 2014 .

[2]  Jun Gao,et al.  Ecological Safety Assessment in Hulunbeier Steppe Based on the Landscape Pattern , 2013 .

[3]  Ruirui Zhou,et al.  Assessing ecological security at the watershed scale based on RS/GIS: a case study from the Hanjiang River Basin , 2014, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

[4]  Baolong Han,et al.  Urban ecological security assessment for cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region based on fuzzy and entropy methods , 2015 .

[5]  Stephan Pauleit,et al.  Modeling the environmental impacts of urban land use and land cover change—a study in Merseyside, UK , 2005 .

[6]  Q. Du,et al.  Evaluation of the spatio-temporal pattern of urban ecological security using remote sensing and GIS , 2013 .

[7]  C. Frissell,et al.  Review of Ecological Effects of Roads on Terrestrial and Aquatic Communities , 2000 .

[8]  Y. Yasuoka,et al.  Assessment with satellite data of the urban heat island effects in Asian mega cities , 2006 .

[9]  Research Progress of Land Ecological Security Evaluation in China , 2010 .

[10]  S. Godefroid,et al.  Urban plant species patterns are highly driven by density and function of built-up areas , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[11]  Susan Roaf,et al.  Adapting Buildings and Cities for Climate Change: A 21st Century Survival Guide , 2005 .

[12]  A. Skidmore,et al.  COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A HYPER-TEMPORAL NDVI ANALYSIS APPROACH AND A LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL MAPPING APPROACH , 2012 .

[13]  Rusong Wang,et al.  Evaluation of urban suitable ecological land based on the minimum cumulative resistance model: A case study from Changzhou, China , 2015 .

[14]  Yan-sui Liu,et al.  Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting, based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou, China , 2009 .

[15]  N. Wong,et al.  GIS-based greenery evaluation on campus master plan , 2008 .

[16]  Jianguo Wu,et al.  Characterizing air pollution patterns on multiple time scales in urban areas: a landscape ecological approach , 2014, Urban Ecosystems.

[17]  Xiaohua Tong,et al.  Calibrating nonparametric cellular automata with a generalized additive model to simulate dynamic urban growth , 2017, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[18]  Jingchun Tang,et al.  Ecological Security Assessment of Tianjin by PSR Model , 2010 .

[19]  Rajagopalan Priyadarsini,et al.  Urban Heat Island and its Impact on Building Energy Consumption , 2009 .

[20]  T. Usha,et al.  Bamboo, as potential sources of food security, economic prosperity and ecological security in North-East India: an overview. , 2015 .

[21]  H. Brauch.  Landscape Ecology and Environmental Security: basic concepts and regional applications for the Medit , 2008 .

[22]  Tian Qing-chang.  Evaluation on Ecological Security of Land Based on Entropy Weight and Matter-Element Model:A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province , 2009 .

[23]  Xia Li,et al.  A new landscape index for quantifying urban expansion using multi-temporal remotely sensed data , 2010, Landscape Ecology.

[24]  Pei Liang,et al.  Ecological Security Assessment of Beijing Based on PSR Model , 2010 .

[25]  Ma Yan,et al.  Land Ecological Security Assessment for Bai Autonomous Prefecture of Dali Based Using PSR Model--with Data in 2009 as Case , 2011 .

[26]  Yan Liu,et al.  Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China , 2016 .

[27]  Yongjiu Feng,et al.  Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models , 2018 .

[28]  S. Gheewala,et al.  Assessment of ecosystem productivity damage due to land use. , 2017, The Science of the total environment.

[29]  Chunlai Zhang,et al.  Assessing the ecological security of the Tibetan plateau: methodology and a case study for Lhaze County. , 2006, Journal of environmental management.

[30]  R. Pontius,et al.  Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment , 2011 .

[31]  John T. Ackerman.  Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm , 2008 .

[32]  Jiaping Wu,et al.  Assessing land ecological security in Shanghai (China) based on catastrophe theory , 2011 .

[33]  Li-wei Lai,et al.  Urban heat island and air pollution--an emerging role for hospital respiratory admissions in an urban area. , 2010, Journal of environmental health.

[34]  Robert Gilmore Pontius,et al.  Quantity, exchange, and shift components of difference in a square contingency table , 2014 .

[35]  R. Matthew,et al.  Conserving the peace : resources, livelihoods and security , 2002 .

[36]  [Differential survival of Euselasia apisaon Dahman (lepidoptera: riodinidae) pupae at understorey plants in the Eucalyptus plantations of Belo Oriente, MG, Brazil]. , 2010, Neotropical entomology.

[37]  S. A. Abramov,et al.  Ecological clusters as a tool of improving the environmental safety in developing countries , 2016, Environment, Development and Sustainability.

[38]  Hong Wang,et al.  Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China’s Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change , 2014, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[39]  Trevor Hastie,et al.  Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene , 2002 .

[40]  Jingfeng Huang,et al.  Comprehensive Suitability Evaluation of Tea Crops Using GIS and a Modified Land Ecological Suitability Evaluation Model , 2012 .

[41]  Yongjiu Feng,et al.  Modeling dynamic urban land-use change with geographical cellular automata and generalized pattern search-optimized rules , 2017, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[42]  Xuehua Liu,et al.  Ecological zoning for regional sustainable development using an integrated modeling approach in the Bohai Rim, China , 2017 .

[43]  Han Yan.  Ecological security assessment of Naiman County based on desertification degree and NDVI index , 2010 .

[44]  Avnish Varshney,et al.  Improved NDBI differencing algorithm for built-up regions change detection from remote-sensing data: an automated approach , 2013 .

[45]  Xiangzheng Deng,et al.  Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China. , 2017, The Science of the total environment.

[46]  Lorenzo Bruzzone,et al.  Earthquake Damage Assessment of Buildings Using VHR Optical and SAR Imagery , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[47]  Yongjiu Feng,et al.  Spatially explicit assessment of land ecological security with spatial variables and logistic regression modeling in Shanghai, China , 2017, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

[48]  P. McIntyre,et al.  Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity , 2010, Nature.

[49]  Lidija Čuček,et al.  Significance of environmental footprints for evaluating sustainability and security of development , 2015, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[50]  Xiaodong Zhu,et al.  An early warning method of landscape ecological security in rapid urbanizing coastal areas and its application in Xiamen, China , 2010 .

[51]  Wei Wu,et al.  [Assessment on ecological security spatial differences of west areas of Liaohe River based on GIS]. , 2005, Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue.

[52]  Yen-Chu Weng.  Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to urbanization , 2007 .

[53]  Xiyan Mao,et al.  Cellular automata-based model for developing land use ecological security patterns in semi-arid areas: a case study of Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China , 2013, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[54]  Monish Gulati.  Industrial Pollution, Environmental Degradation and Disasters-Leveraging the Industry - Community Interface to Reduce Vulnerability , 2009 .

[55]  M. Bell,et al.  The effect of sandstorms and air pollution on cause-specific hospital admissions in Taipei, Taiwan , 2007, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

[56]  Leena Kopperoinen,et al.  Using expert knowledge in combining green infrastructure and ecosystem services in land use planning: an insight into a new place-based methodology , 2014, Landscape Ecology.

[57]  Prashant Kumar,et al.  Concentrations, sources and exposure risks associated with particulate matter in the Middle East Area—a review , 2015, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health.

[58]  R. Rigby,et al.  Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape , 2005 .

[59]  Hassan Radhi,et al.  Impacts of urbanisation on the thermal behaviour of new built up environments: A scoping study of the urban heat island in Bahrain , 2013 .

[60]  Bai Zhang,et al.  Regional Ecological Security Assessment Based on Long Periods of Ecological Footprint Analysis , 2007, 2012 2nd International Conference on Remote Sensing, Environment and Transportation Engineering.