Do Entry-Level Math Skills Predict Success in Principles of Economics?
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ABSTRACT Principles of economics relies on a rudimentary knowledge of mathematics, whether it is algebra or the use and understanding of graphs. The math skills that students bring into the principles course may greatly affect their eventual performance. In this paper, we show that outcomes on a math pre-test provide instructors with an early-warning signal of potential difficulty in principles of economics. Our statistical analysis indicates that, holding constant a variety of other factors, performance on the math pre-test and final grades are positively and significantly related. One implication of this result is that instructors armed with the results of the pre-test may be able to intervene, enhance at-risk students' math skills and improve student performance in principles of economics. INTRODUCTION Using mathematics to explain economics, while second nature to most instructors, often leaves students bewildered. And by mathematics we do not mean the specialized mathematical skills discussed in Becker (1998). Rather, we refer to a rudimentary understanding of algebra and arithmetic that are needed in a principles course to calculate index numbers, percentages and averages, and a fundamental grasp of graphs and charts that are predominant in principles of economics texts. To determine just how resources should be allocated to bring students' math skills up to a level that enhances success in a principles of economics class, it is essential to gauge the students' math skills early in the course. Few instructors assess their students' math capabilities before they delve into economic discussions that require some math knowledge. If a basic level of math skill is essential for understanding (and success in) principles of economics, some front-end analysis may help alleviate student anxiety and lackluster performance in economics. In this paper we assess the relationship between students' entry-level math skills and their performance in principles of economics. To gauge the student's basic math knowledge, we conduct a short pre-test is given in the first week of the semester. The results reported in this paper are based on data taken from several of our sections of principles taught at in the fall semester of 1997. Does a student's score in the math pretest provide a significant indicator of performance in principles of economics? Looking ahead, we find that, after holding a number of other factors constant, the answer to that question is yes. DESCRIPTION OF THE EXPERIMENT The experimental design is similar to the analyses of Evensky, et al. (1997), Anderson, Benjamin and Fuss (1994), Simkins and Allen (1997), and Dale and Crawford (2000), among others. (Siegfried and Walstad (1998) and Becker (1997) provide discussions of related studies.) In the Evensky study, for example, students in the introductory economics course at Syracuse University were given a 22-question quiz to assess their ability to interpret graphs. While graphical skills are important, so too is a basic knowledge of algebra and arithmetic. With that in mind, the math pretest we have constructed and use consists of 15 questions covering a broad range of math skills, including calculating the slope of an equation, determining a percentage change, plotting the relationship between two variables, and calculating an average. (A copy of the pretest is available on request.) This test is administered in class during the first week of the semester. Scores on this test are used to determine if performance on the math pretest, ceteris paribus, predict performance in principles of economics. To determine the usefulness of the math pre-test score as an indicator of success in principles, a number of conditioning variables were collected for the statistical analysis. Previous work has found that the most important variable is the student's GPA. This measure serves as a portmanteau variable which captures the students' overall academic ability and, a priori, should be positively related to the final grade in principles of economics. …
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