Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types

This paper develops the notion of a Large Type Limit (LTL) describing the dynamical behavior of heterogeneous markets with many trader types. It is shown that generic and persistent features of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types are well described by the large type limit. Stability and bifurcation routes to instability and strange attractors in a simple evolutionary financial market model are studied. An increase in the ``intensity of adaption'' or in the diversity of beliefs may lead to deviations from an unstable RE fundamental benchmark and excess volatility. A large evolutionary system may thus become unstable and complicated dynamics may arise when agents become sensitive to small differences in fitness.

[1]  Carl Chiarella,et al.  Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model , 2002 .

[2]  T. Sargent The Conquest of American Inflation , 1999 .

[3]  R. Shiller Irrational Exuberance Ed. 2 , 2005 .

[4]  Willaiam A. Brock,et al.  Asset Price Behavior in Complex Environments , 1996 .

[5]  Neil Wallace,et al.  On the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates , 1981 .

[6]  Saangjoon Baak Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations , 1999 .

[7]  David K. Levine,et al.  Growth Cycles and Market Crashes , 2000, J. Econ. Theory.

[8]  Thomas Lux,et al.  Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets , 2003, 2003 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering, 2003. Proceedings..

[9]  The Theory of Markets , 1999 .

[10]  Blake LeBaron,et al.  Agent-based computational finance : Suggested readings and early research , 2000 .

[11]  L. Blume,et al.  Evolution and market behavior , 1992 .

[12]  Jean-Michel Grandmont,et al.  Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems , 1998 .

[13]  T. Lux Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes , 1995 .

[14]  Andrea Gaunersdorfer,et al.  Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents , 2000 .

[15]  G. Evans,et al.  Learning and expectations in macroeconomics , 2001 .

[16]  Cars H. Hommes,et al.  Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems , 2001 .

[17]  Dietrich Stauffer,et al.  FINITE-SIZE EFFECTS IN MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF TWO STOCK MARKET MODELS , 1999 .

[18]  S. Manzan Essays in Nonlinear Economic Dynamics , 2003 .

[19]  Andrea Gaunersdorfer,et al.  A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering , 2000 .

[20]  M. Embrechts,et al.  Exchange Rate Theory: Chaotic Models of Foreign Exchange Markets , 1993 .

[21]  George Huitema,et al.  Unfoldings and Bifurcations of Quasi-Periodic Tori , 1990 .

[22]  R. Serfling Approximation Theorems of Mathematical Statistics , 1980 .

[23]  W. Brock,et al.  Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model , 1998 .

[24]  P. Holmes,et al.  Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems, and Bifurcations of Vector Fields , 1983, Applied Mathematical Sciences.

[25]  R. Jennrich Asymptotic Properties of Non-Linear Least Squares Estimators , 1969 .

[26]  Werner Hildenbrand,et al.  Core of an economy , 1982 .

[27]  Mark P. Taylor,et al.  Money and financial markets , 1993 .

[28]  Xuezhong He,et al.  Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning , 2000 .

[29]  Mordecai Kurz,et al.  Endogenous economic fluctuations : studies in the theory of rational beliefs , 1997 .

[30]  A. Shleifer,et al.  Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance , 2002 .

[31]  Joep Sonnemans,et al.  Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments , 2003 .

[32]  B. LeBaron,et al.  Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns , 1992 .

[33]  T. Hens,et al.  An Application of Evolutionary Finance to Firms Listed in the Swiss Market Index , 2002 .

[34]  Y. Kuznetsov Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory , 2023, Applied Mathematical Sciences.

[35]  André de Palma,et al.  Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation , 1995 .

[36]  Jiang Wang,et al.  A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume , 1994, Journal of Political Economy.

[37]  Y. Kuznetsov Elements of applied bifurcation theory (2nd ed.) , 1998 .

[38]  May,et al.  Stock market crashes , 2004 .

[39]  Blake LeBaron,et al.  Short-memory traders and their impact on group learning in financial markets , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[40]  W. Brock,et al.  Expectational diversity in monetary economies , 2000 .

[41]  J. Keynes,et al.  The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. , 1936 .

[42]  William A. Brock,et al.  Models of complexity in economics and finance , 1997 .

[43]  R. Palmer,et al.  Time series properties of an artificial stock market , 1999 .

[44]  C. Praagman,et al.  System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models , 1997 .

[45]  Floris Takens,et al.  Hyperbolicity and sensitive chaotic dynamics at homoclinic bifurcations : fractal dimensions and infinitely many attractors , 1993 .

[46]  William A. Brock,et al.  A rational route to randomness , 1997 .

[47]  Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments , 2005 .

[48]  Matteo Marsili,et al.  Criticality and market efficiency in a simple realistic model of the stock market. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[49]  David Ruelle,et al.  OCCURRENCE OF STRANGE AXIOM A ATTRACTORS NEAR QUASI PERIODIC FLOWS ON TM, M IS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 3 , 1978 .

[50]  Roger L. Kraft Hyperbolicity & Sensitive Chaotic Dynamics at Homoclinic Bifurcations (J. Palis and F. Taken) , 1996, SIAM Rev..

[51]  T. Sargent Bounded rationality in macroeconomics , 1993 .

[52]  Wagner A. Kamakura,et al.  Book Review: Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications , 1982 .

[53]  V. Velden,et al.  An experimental approach to expectation formation in dynamic economic systems , 2001 .

[54]  M. Marchesi,et al.  VOLATILITY CLUSTERING IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: A MICROSIMULATION OF INTERACTING AGENTS , 1998 .

[55]  M. Marchesi,et al.  VOLATILITY CLUSTERING IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: A MICROSIMULATION OF INTERACTING AGENTS , 2000 .

[56]  R. Thaler Quasi Rational Economics , 1991 .

[57]  L. Summers,et al.  Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets , 1990, Journal of Political Economy.

[58]  Florian Wagener,et al.  Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering , 2000 .

[59]  R. Palmer,et al.  Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market , 1996 .

[60]  W. Arthur,et al.  The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II , 1988 .

[61]  David Ruelle,et al.  Occurrence of strange Axiom A attractors near quasiperiodic flows on $T^{m}$,$\,m\geq 3$ , 1979 .

[62]  R. D. Vilder Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability , 1996 .

[63]  Colin F. Camerer,et al.  BUBBLES AND FADS IN ASSET PRICES , 1989 .

[64]  Blake LeBaron,et al.  A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume , 1995 .

[65]  A. Kirman Measure theory with applications to economics , 2000 .

[66]  Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé,et al.  Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets , 2005 .

[67]  Kenneth A. Froot,et al.  Chartists, Fundamentalists and the Demand for Dollars , 1991 .

[68]  M. Marchesi,et al.  Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market , 1999, Nature.

[69]  J. Farmer Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution , 1998, adap-org/9812005.

[70]  Patrick de Fontnouvelle,et al.  INFORMATION DYNAMICS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS , 2000, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[71]  J. Chavas On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market , 2000 .

[72]  F. Takens,et al.  On the nature of turbulence , 1971 .

[73]  C. Hommes,et al.  Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Revised June 2003) , 2002 .

[74]  William A. Brock,et al.  PATHWAYS TO RANDOMNESS IN THE ECONOMY: EMERGENT NONLINEARITY AND CHAOS IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE , 1993 .

[75]  T. Hens,et al.  MARKET SELECTION OF FINANCIAL TRADING STRATEGIES: GLOBAL STABILITY , 2002 .

[76]  C. Plott,et al.  Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets , 1988 .

[77]  Masanao Aoki,et al.  Open Models of Share Markets with Two Dominant Types of Participants , 2002 .

[78]  Joel Sobel,et al.  Economists' Models of Learning , 2000, J. Econ. Theory.

[79]  Gilles Teyssière,et al.  Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series , 2001 .

[80]  V. Smith,et al.  Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets , 1988 .

[81]  Shu-Heng Chen The Influence of Market Size in an Artificial Stock Market: The Approach Based on Genetic Programming , 2001 .

[82]  D. Hirshleifer Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing , 2001 .

[83]  F. Takens,et al.  Occurrence of strange AxiomA attractors near quasi periodic flows onTm,m≧3 , 1978 .