Computer Simulation and Analysis of Problems in Kinship and Social Structure

THE use of electronic computers in almost all fields of scientific research has led recently to exploratory studies of their utility in anthropology (Hymes MS). Some attempts have been made to employ machines in data processing (e.g., Coult et al. MS, Randolph and Coult MS, Coult and Randolph 1965); others have attempted to take advantage of the capabilities of computers in the construction of explanatory or predictive models (e.g., Gilbert and Hammel MS, Hammel and Gilbert MS, also reported in Lamb and Romney MS; see also Kunstadter et al. 1963). This paper is an account of the status of our research in the latter category and presents improvements and refinements of programs described earlier.? Because the use of electronic computers has been regarded with some skepticism, we should say quite clearly here that we regard a computer as a clerk with several virtues but one which is no better than its instructions.2 To appreciate the way in which this clerk operates, one should realize that a computer is, in principle, nothing more than a desk calculator and a note pad. In using a desk calculator, an operator selects items from the note pad or other storage location (such as his own memory) and transfers them into the calculator. He then performs certain manipulations of the data so entered by punching particular buttons in a certain sequence, reads the results, and transfers these back to the note pad. A computer combines the desk calculator and the note pad (storage) in one system so that storage, retrieval, and manipulation of items are mechanized. The program for the computer mechanizes the operator in directing the computer which items to select from storage, which operations to perform on them, and which results to place back in storage. The present paper is concerned with the description of such a program for the solution of a complex problem in demography and social organization; the specific computer is important only in the limiting conditions its mechanical and electronic structure places on the nature of the program.