Available Transfer Capability Calculation Based on Markov Chain and Enumeration Method

Available transfer capability(ATC)is an important index for determining power delivery contracts and managing transmission congestion.In power markets,large amount of uncertainties and dynamic,continuous and time-varying features of power systems have great impacts on ATC.How to deal with these uncertainties are the main difficulties in ATC calculation.Markov chain has the ability to describe large amount of uncertainties,and forecast the future states of power systems based on the initial state and transition probability.A novel method is proposed to forecast continuous system states based on Markov chain,and use enumeration method to get the ATC expectation values of each time point,finally get the changing ATC curve with time.The IEEE 14-bus test system is used to verify the presented approach.The results show the model and algorithm is correct and effective,and more accurate information of ATC is gained.