Expected Seismic Risk in a District of theSant’antimo’s Historical Centre

The large-scale seismic risk is a useful tool for assessing the susceptibility of a sample of buildings to overcome, in a given period of time, a certain seismic event of an assigned entity. Seismic risk can be understood as the combination of three factors, such as Exposure (E), Vulnerability (V) and Hazard (H). The Exposure is connected to the nature, quantity and value of properties and activities of the area that can be influenced directly or indirectly by the seismic event. Vulnerability can be defined as the intrinsic potential of buildings to suffer a certain level of damage when subjected to a seismic event of defined intensity. Finally, Hazard is considered as the occurrence probability of the asymptomatic event of a certain intensity in a specific site, it depending mainly on the geographic position and the geological characteristics of the site where the event is expected [1-3]. These three factors are interconnected to each other and they are influenced by uncertainties due to the variability of the variables involved, represented by buildings in the case under study. However, the risk, independently from the natural phenomena, is to be considered as the attainment of a level of social and economic “losses” [4]. These losses are commonly identified in terms of costs that should be supported for the system to restore its original configuration. The protection strategies of built-up areas must, therefore, represent a useful and concrete investment tool for the planning of the risk mitigation and for the protection of both people and constructive heritage. As a result, a model for vulnerability assessment and for the evaluation of economic and social losses would not only be able to estimate future potential losses due to the occurrence of earthquakes that can affect a particular region, but it should also be used to prepare and implement risk mitigation measures [5]. Generally, the heterogeneity of buildings, especially in historical centres, is still one of the most important issues concerning the large-scale seismic risk evaluation.

[1]  S. Lagomarsino,et al.  A MACROSEISMIC METHOD FOR THE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS , 2002 .

[2]  Guido Magenes,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS , 2006 .

[3]  Paulo B. Lourenço,et al.  Simplified evaluation of seismic vulnerability of early 20th century masonry buildings in Lisbon , 2016 .

[4]  Nicola Chieffo,et al.  Seismic Vulnerability and Damage Speedy Estimation of an Urban Sector within the Municipality of San Potito Sannitico (Caserta, Italy) , 2017 .

[5]  C. Cornell.  Engineering seismic risk analysis , 1968 .

[6]  Paulo B. Lourenço,et al.  Empirical seismic vulnerability analysis for masonry buildings based on school buildings survey in Iran , 2016, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.

[7]  Humberto Varum,et al.  Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre in Seixal, Portugal , 2013, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.

[8]  Tiago Miguel Ferreira,et al.  Analysis of the impact of large scale seismic retrofitting strategies through the application of a vulnerability-based approach on traditional masonry buildings , 2017, Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration.

[9]  M. L. Carreño,et al.  Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach , 2007 .

[10]  Federico M. Mazzolani,et al.  Urban habitat constructions under catastrophic events , 2008 .

[11]  M. Pelling,et al.  Determinants of risk: Exposure and vulnerability , 2012 .

[12]  Fatemeh Jalayer,et al.  The probabilistic basis for the 2000 SAC/FEMA steel moment frame guidelines , 2002 .

[13]  L. Reiter.  Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights , 1991 .

[14]  Iuliana Armaş,et al.  Multi-criteria vulnerability analysis to earthquake hazard of Bucharest, Romania , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[15]  Alex H. Barbat,et al.  Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method , 2010 .

[16]  João Manuel Carvalho Estevão,et al.  Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre of Faro, Portugal , 2016 .

[17]  Mauro Dolce,et al.  Building damage assessment after the 2009 Abruzzi earthquake , 2015, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering.

[18]  J. Mendes,et al.  Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment: case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra, Portugal , 2011 .

[19]  Giuseppina Uva,et al.  ANTAEUS Project for the Regional Vulnerability Assessment of the Current Building Stock in Historical Centers , 2016 .

[20]  Federico M. Mazzolani,et al.  Numerical calibration of an easy method for seismic behaviour assessment on large scale of masonry building aggregates , 2015, Adv. Eng. Softw..