Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050

This review analyzes 53 publications that forecast battery cost and provides transparency on methodological and technological details.

[1]  R. Wiser,et al.  Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050 , 2021, Nature Energy.

[2]  Theodosios Famprikis,et al.  On the underestimated influence of synthetic conditions in solid ionic conductors , 2021, Chemical science.

[3]  J. Leker,et al.  Economies of scale in battery cell manufacturing: The impact of material and process innovations , 2021 .

[4]  Xuning Feng,et al.  An experimental study on the thermal characteristics of the Cell-To-Pack system , 2021, Energy.

[5]  C. Yoon,et al.  Reducing cobalt from lithium-ion batteries for the electric vehicle era , 2021 .

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[9]  A. Lipson,et al.  Stabilizing NMC 811 Li-Ion Battery Cathode through a Rapid Coprecipitation Process , 2021 .

[10]  Chaoyang Wang,et al.  Thermally modulated lithium iron phosphate batteries for mass-market electric vehicles , 2021, Nature Energy.

[11]  Yang Zhao,et al.  All-solid-state lithium batteries enabled by sulfide electrolytes: from fundamental research to practical engineering design , 2021 .

[12]  Antranik Jonderian,et al.  The role of metal substitutions in the development of Li batteries, part II: solid electrolytes , 2021 .

[13]  Fraser Jake,et al.  Study on future demand and supply security of nickel for electric vehicle batteries , 2021 .

[14]  M. Winter,et al.  Li-rich cathodes for rechargeable Li-based batteries: reaction mechanisms and advanced characterization techniques , 2020 .

[15]  Xiaofei Yang,et al.  Recent advances and perspectives on thin electrolytes for high-energy-density solid-state lithium batteries , 2020, Energy & Environmental Science.

[16]  Jingwei Xiang,et al.  Methods and Cost Estimation for the Synthesis of Nanosized Lithium Sulfide , 2020, Small Structures.

[17]  Bernhard Steubing,et al.  Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries , 2020, Communications Materials.

[18]  B. Ó. Gallachóir,et al.  Wind turbine cost reduction: A detailed bottom-up analysis of innovation drivers , 2020 .

[19]  Patrick Bonnick,et al.  The Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde of lithium sulfur batteries , 2020 .

[20]  A. Manthiram,et al.  Towards more environmentally and socially responsible batteries , 2020 .

[21]  Xueyi Guo,et al.  Modeling the potential impact of future lithium recycling on lithium demand in China: A dynamic SFA approach , 2020 .

[22]  Cutting cobalt , 2020, Nature Energy.

[23]  K. Catchpole,et al.  A bottom‐up cost analysis of silicon–perovskite tandem photovoltaics , 2020, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications.

[24]  Michael J. Wang,et al.  Enabling “lithium-free” manufacturing of pure lithium metal solid-state batteries through in situ plating , 2020, Nature Communications.

[25]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy , 2020, Nature Communications.

[26]  Eugene A. Esparcia,et al.  Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model , 2020, Energies.

[27]  D. Sauer,et al.  Lithium titanate oxide battery cells for high-power automotive applications – Electro-thermal properties, aging behavior and cost considerations , 2020 .

[28]  Tobias S. Schmidt,et al.  Projecting the Competition between Energy-Storage Technologies in the Electricity Sector , 2020 .

[29]  V. K. Peterson,et al.  Developing high-voltage spinel LiNi0.5Mn1.5O4 cathodes for high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries: current achievements and future prospects , 2020 .

[30]  J. Leker,et al.  Battery plant location considering the balance between knowledge and cost: A comparative study of the EU-28 countries , 2020 .

[31]  Achim Kampker,et al.  Product-requirement-model to approach the identification of uncertainties in battery systems development , 2020, International Journal on Interactive Design and Manufacturing (IJIDeM).

[32]  Shengheng Tan,et al.  Effect of stirring environment humidity on electrochemical performance of nickel-rich cathode materials as lithium ion batteries , 2020, Ionics.

[33]  M. Obrovac,et al.  Quantifying the cost effectiveness of non-aqueous potassium-ion batteries , 2020 .

[34]  F. Duffner,et al.  Battery cost modeling: A review and directions for future research , 2020 .

[35]  Vilayanur V. Viswanathan,et al.  An Evaluation of Energy Storage Cost and Performance Characteristics , 2020, Energies.

[36]  K. Amine,et al.  Bringing forward the development of battery cells for automotive applications: Perspective of R&D activities in China, Japan, the EU and the USA , 2020 .

[37]  A. Manthiram,et al.  Anode‐Free Full Cells: A Pathway to High‐Energy Density Lithium‐Metal Batteries , 2020, Advanced Energy Materials.

[38]  Daniel A. Steingart,et al.  Asymptotic Cost Analysis of Intercalation Lithium-Ion Systems for Multi-hour Duration Energy Storage , 2020 .

[39]  K. Kim,et al.  High energy and long cycles , 2020 .

[40]  I. Han,et al.  High-energy long-cycling all-solid-state lithium metal batteries enabled by silver–carbon composite anodes , 2020 .

[41]  Ellen Ivers-Tiffée,et al.  Benchmarking the performance of all-solid-state lithium batteries , 2020 .

[42]  O. Guillon,et al.  Manufacturing cost model for planar 5 kWel SOFC stacks at Forschungszentrum Jülich , 2020, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy.

[43]  G. Reinhart,et al.  Solid versus Liquid—A Bottom‐Up Calculation Model to Analyze the Manufacturing Cost of Future High‐Energy Batteries , 2020, Energy Technology.

[44]  Evan M. Erickson,et al.  High-nickel layered oxide cathodes for lithium-based automotive batteries , 2020 .

[45]  Amir F. Atiya,et al.  Why does forecast combination work so well? , 2020, International Journal of Forecasting.

[46]  Fuquan Zhao,et al.  Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment , 2019, Nature Communications.

[47]  Peng Zhou,et al.  Learning curve with input price for tracking technical change in the energy transition process , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[48]  G. Xydis,et al.  A literature review on hydrogen refuelling stations and infrastructure. Current status and future prospects , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[49]  Xueping Gao,et al.  Inorganic sulfide solid electrolytes for all-solid-state lithium secondary batteries , 2019, Journal of Materials Chemistry A.

[50]  Martin Thema,et al.  Power-to-Gas: Electrolysis and methanation status review , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[51]  Hankwon Lim,et al.  Projected economic outlook and scenario analysis for H2 production by alkaline water electrolysis on the basis of the unit electricity price, the learning rate, and the automation level , 2019, Sustainable Energy & Fuels.

[52]  Chie Hoon Song,et al.  Analysis of technological knowledge stock and prediction of its future development potential: The case of lithium-ion batteries , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[53]  G. Reinhart,et al.  Prospects of production technologies and manufacturing costs of oxide-based all-solid-state lithium batteries , 2019, Energy & Environmental Science.

[54]  Stefan Reichelstein,et al.  The emergence of cost effective battery storage , 2019, Nature Communications.

[55]  W. Green,et al.  Learning only buys you so much: Practical limits on battery price reduction , 2019, Applied Energy.

[56]  Wolfgang Bernhart.  CHAPTER 13. Challenges and Opportunities in Lithium-ion Battery Supply , 2019, Future Lithium-ion Batteries.

[57]  Chen‐Zi Zhao,et al.  Fast Charging Lithium Batteries: Recent Progress and Future Prospects. , 2019, Small.

[58]  D. Dees,et al.  Modeling the Performance and Cost of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles, Third Edition , 2019 .

[59]  Stefan Reichelstein,et al.  Economics of converting renewable power to hydrogen , 2019, Nature Energy.

[60]  Michael M. Whiston,et al.  Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles , 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[61]  R. Mücke,et al.  Microstructure‐Controlled Ni‐Rich Cathode Material by Microscale Compositional Partition for Next‐Generation Electric Vehicles , 2019, Advanced Energy Materials.

[62]  P. Ekins,et al.  The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system , 2019, Energy & Environmental Science.

[63]  Marc Wentker,et al.  A Bottom-Up Approach to Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Modeling with a Focus on Cathode Active Materials , 2019, Energies.

[64]  Rebecca E. Ciez,et al.  Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries , 2019, Nature Sustainability.

[65]  Joeri Van Mierlo,et al.  Eco-Efficiency of a Lithium-Ion Battery for Electric Vehicles: Influence of Manufacturing Country and Commodity Prices on GHG Emissions and Costs , 2019, Batteries.

[66]  A. Hawkes,et al.  Projecting the Future Levelized Cost of Electricity Storage Technologies , 2019, Joule.

[67]  F. Sprei,et al.  Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles , 2019, Energy Policy.

[68]  László Szabó,et al.  Cost-efficiency benchmarking of European renewable electricity support schemes , 2018, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[69]  Detlef Stolten,et al.  A review of current challenges and trends in energy systems modeling , 2018, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[70]  Mathieu Marrony,et al.  Bottom-up cost evaluation of SOEC systems in the range of 10–100 MW , 2018, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy.

[71]  R. Madlener,et al.  Business Opportunities and the Regulatory Framework , 2018 .

[72]  T. M. Gür.  Correction: Review of electrical energy storage technologies, materials and systems: challenges and prospects for large-scale grid storage , 2018 .

[73]  Michael Safoutin,et al.  Predicting the Future Manufacturing Cost of Batteries for Plug-In Vehicles for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017–2025 Light-Duty Greenhouse Gas Standards , 2018, World Electric Vehicle Journal.

[74]  O. Edelenbosch,et al.  Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarios , 2018, Climatic Change.

[75]  Yun Huang,et al.  Optimal synthetic conditions for a novel and high performance Ni-rich cathode material of LiNi0.68Co0.10Mn0.22O2 , 2018 .

[76]  Joost N. H. Reek,et al.  The future of solar fuels: when could they become competitive? , 2018 .

[77]  Jaephil Cho,et al.  A highly stabilized nickel-rich cathode material by nanoscale epitaxy control for high-energy lithium-ion batteries , 2018 .

[78]  Cheng-Yu Wu,et al.  Rational design of a synthetic strategy, carburizing approach and pore-forming pattern to unlock the cycle reversibility and rate capability of micro-agglomerated LiMn0.8Fe0.2PO4 cathode materials , 2018 .

[79]  R. Glardon,et al.  Manufacturing Operations Management , 2018 .

[80]  M. Carvalho,et al.  The lithium-ion battery: State of the art and future perspectives , 2018, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[81]  Yan Yu,et al.  Toward True Lithium-Air Batteries , 2018 .

[82]  Jun Lu,et al.  Batteries and fuel cells for emerging electric vehicle markets , 2018 .

[83]  M. Winter,et al.  Performance and cost of materials for lithium-based rechargeable automotive batteries , 2018 .

[84]  Wolfgang Haselrieder,et al.  Current status and challenges for automotive battery production technologies , 2018 .

[85]  Gunther Reinhart,et al.  All-solid-state lithium-ion and lithium metal batteries – paving the way to large-scale production , 2018 .

[86]  T. Nilges,et al.  Recent progress and developments in lithium cobalt phosphate chemistry- Syntheses, polymorphism and properties , 2018 .

[87]  S. Passerini,et al.  A cost and resource analysis of sodium-ion batteries , 2018 .

[88]  Nigel P. Brandon,et al.  Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations , 2018 .

[89]  Sascha Samadi,et al.  The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review , 2018 .

[90]  Tarvydas Dalius,et al.  Li-ion batteries for mobility and stationary storage applications , 2018 .

[91]  Long T Lam,et al.  A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies , 2018 .

[92]  A. Hawkes,et al.  Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study , 2017 .

[93]  Joeri Van Mierlo,et al.  Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030 , 2017 .

[94]  Daniel M. Kammen,et al.  Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition , 2017, Nature Energy.

[95]  F. Trequattrini,et al.  Interplay between local structure and transport properties in iron-doped LiCoPO4 olivines , 2017 .

[96]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates , 2017, Nature Energy.

[97]  Jeremy J. Michalek,et al.  Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: the case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles , 2017 .

[98]  Haegyeom Kim,et al.  Reaction chemistry in rechargeable Li-O2 batteries. , 2017, Chemical Society reviews.

[99]  Martin Winter,et al.  Lithium ion, lithium metal, and alternative rechargeable battery technologies: the odyssey for high energy density , 2017, Journal of Solid State Electrochemistry.

[100]  Jay F. Whitacre,et al.  Comparison between cylindrical and prismatic lithium-ion cell costs using a process based cost model , 2017 .

[101]  Pavan Badami,et al.  Can Li-Ion batteries be the panacea for automotive applications? , 2017 .

[102]  Jianming Zheng,et al.  Anode‐Free Rechargeable Lithium Metal Batteries , 2016 .

[103]  Linda F. Nazar,et al.  Advances in lithium–sulfur batteries based on multifunctional cathodes and electrolytes , 2016, Nature Energy.

[104]  Jürgen Janek,et al.  A solid future for battery development , 2016, Nature Energy.

[105]  Robert Margolis,et al.  Utility-scale lithium-ion storage cost projections for use in capacity expansion models , 2016, 2016 North American Power Symposium (NAPS).

[106]  Rebecca E. Ciez,et al.  The cost of lithium is unlikely to upend the price of Li-ion storage systems , 2016 .

[107]  Joshua M. Pearce,et al.  Levelized cost of electricity for solar photovoltaic, battery and cogen hybrid systems , 2016 .

[108]  Alastair R. Buckley,et al.  A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation , 2016 .

[109]  Ralf Schledjewski,et al.  Review of cost estimation: methods and models for aerospace composite manufacturing , 2016 .

[110]  P. Jaramillo,et al.  A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies , 2015 .

[111]  Eric Williams,et al.  Residual learning rates in lead-acid batteries: Effects on emerging technologies , 2015 .

[112]  Greg P. Smestad,et al.  A bottom-up cost analysis of a high concentration PV module , 2015 .

[113]  Jens Tübke,et al.  Lithium–Sulfur Cells: The Gap between the State‐of‐the‐Art and the Requirements for High Energy Battery Cells , 2015 .

[114]  D. Wilkinson,et al.  A review of cathode materials and structures for rechargeable lithium–air batteries , 2015 .

[115]  Christoph Herrmann,et al.  Material cost model for innovative li-ion battery cells in electric vehicle applications , 2015 .

[116]  Kevin G. Gallagher,et al.  Cost savings for manufacturing lithium batteries in a flexible plant , 2015 .

[117]  Emanuele Borgonovo,et al.  Sensitivity to energy technology costs: a multi-model comparison analysis. , 2015 .

[118]  B. Nykvist,et al.  Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles , 2015 .

[119]  Peter Lamp,et al.  Future generations of cathode materials: an automotive industry perspective , 2015 .

[120]  E. Williams,et al.  Learning dependent subsidies for lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries , 2015 .

[121]  Claus Daniel,et al.  Prospects for reducing the processing cost of lithium ion batteries , 2015 .

[122]  S. Martinet,et al.  Cost modeling of lithium‐ion battery cells for automotive applications , 2015 .

[123]  Apurba Sakti,et al.  A techno-economic analysis and optimization of Li-ion batteries for light-duty passenger vehicle electrification , 2015 .

[124]  Claire Villevieille,et al.  Rechargeable Batteries: Grasping for the Limits of Chemistry , 2015 .

[125]  Kevin G. Gallagher,et al.  Critical Link between Materials Chemistry and Cell-Level Design for High Energy Density and Low Cost Lithium-Sulfur Transportation Battery , 2015 .

[126]  Kevin G. Gallagher,et al.  Pathways to Low Cost Electrochemical Energy Storage: A Comparison of Aqueous and Nonaqueous Flow Batteries , 2014 .

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[129]  Kevin G. Gallagher,et al.  Quantifying the promise of lithium–air batteries for electric vehicles , 2014 .

[130]  Jaephil Cho,et al.  High performance LiMn2O4 cathode materials grown with epitaxial layered nanostructure for Li-ion batteries. , 2014, Nano letters.

[131]  Shahid A. Zia,et al.  Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries & Competitors , 2013 .

[132]  Ralph J. Brodd,et al.  Cost comparison of producing high-performance Li-ion batteries in the U.S. and in China , 2013 .

[133]  J. Trancik,et al.  Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress , 2012, PloS one.

[134]  Nadia Ameli,et al.  Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles , 2012 .

[135]  Thomas Mayer,et al.  Feasibility study of 2020 target costs for PEM fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries: A two-factor experience curve approach , 2012 .

[136]  Martin Kumar Patel,et al.  On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles , 2012 .

[137]  André Faaij,et al.  Performance of batteries for electric vehicles on short and longer term , 2012 .

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[139]  Valentina Bosetti,et al.  The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey , 2012 .

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[150]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  Learning rates for energy technologies , 2001 .

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