The final policy scenarios of the EU Clean Air Policy Package

Acknowledgements This report was produced under the negotiated procedure to extend contract # Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the positions of IIASA or its collaborating and supporting organizations. The orientation and content of this report cannot be taken as indicating the position of the European Commission or its services. Executive Summary This report documents the key scenarios that informed the discussion and decision of the college of the European Commission on the Clean Air Policy package. Based on the PRIMES‐2013 Reference scenario and the associated CAPRI projections of agricultural activities, the GAINS model has been used to explore the potential for environmental improvements offered by emission control measures that are not yet part of current legislation. Compared to the baseline projection in 2025, full application of readily available technical emission reduction measures in the EU could reduce health impacts from PM by another 30% and thereby gain more than 60 million life‐years in the EU. It could save another 2,800 premature deaths per year because of lower ozone concentrations. Further controls of agricultural emissions could protect biodiversity at another 200,000 km 2 of ecosystems against excess nitrogen deposition, including 90,000 km 2 of Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. It could eliminate almost all likely exceedances of the air quality limit values for NO 2 , and for PM10 values in the old Member States. It is estimated that the full implementation of all the measures that achieve the above‐mentioned benefits would involve in 2025 additional emission control costs of approximately 47 billion €/yr (0.3% of GDP), compared to 88 billion €/yr (0.6%) that are spent under current legislation. The report examines interim environmental targets that could serve for 2025 as milestones towards the long‐term objective of the EU Environment Action Programme. In a most conservative perspective, considering monetized benefits only for human health and using the low valuation of the value of a lost life year (VOLY), net benefits are maximized at a 76% 'gap closure' between the current legislation baseline and the maximum feasible emission reductions. At this level, emission reduction costs (on top of current legislation) amount to 4.5 billion €/yr, while benefits from these measures are estimated at 44 billion €/yr. The European Commission reached a final agreement on a slightly lower gap closure level (70%) for health effects for the new Clean Air Programme for Europe. To …