Dynamic Fuzzy Asset Management for Worst Scenarios with Average Value-at-Risks

A dynamic portfolio allocation is discussed in asset management with fuzziness. By perception-based extension for fuzzy random variables, a dynamic portfolio model for average value-at-risks of fuzzy random variables is introduced. By dynamic programming and mathematical programming, this paper derives analytical solutions of the optimization problem for dynamic worst scenarios. A few numerical examples are given to discuss the results. We find the average value-at-risk is a more reasonable criterion than value-at-risk.

[1]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[2]  W. Sharpe,et al.  Mean-Variance Analysis in Portfolio Choice and Capital Markets , 1987 .

[3]  Yuji Yoshida Perception-Based Estimations of Fuzzy Random Variables: Linearity and convexity , 2008, Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst..

[4]  A. Whitehead An Introduction to Mathematics , 1949, Nature.

[5]  Junzo Watada FUzzy Portfolio Model for Decision Making In Investment , 2001 .

[6]  Richard Bellman,et al.  Decision-making in fuzzy environment , 2012 .

[7]  S. Pliska Introduction to Mathematical Finance: Discrete Time Models , 1997 .

[8]  Marc Roubens,et al.  Ranking and defuzzification methods based on area compensation , 1996, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[9]  Y. Yoshida "Mean Values, Measurement of Fuzziness and Variance of Fuzzy Random Variables for Fuzzy Optimization" , 2006 .

[10]  Peijun Guo,et al.  Portfolio selection based on fuzzy probabilities and possibility distributions , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[11]  Yuji Yoshida Fuzzy Extension of Estimations with Randomness: The Perception-Based Approach , 2007, MDAI.

[12]  R. Kruse,et al.  Statistics with vague data , 1987 .

[13]  Peijun Guo,et al.  Portfolio selection based on upper and lower exponential possibility distributions , 1999, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[14]  Ichiro Nishizaki,et al.  Interactive multiobjective fuzzy random linear programming: Maximization of possibility and probability , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[15]  Robert LIN,et al.  NOTE ON FUZZY SETS , 2014 .

[16]  Yuji Yoshida Risk Analysis of Portfolios Under Uncertainty: Minimizing Average Rates of Falling , 2011, J. Adv. Comput. Intell. Intell. Informatics.

[17]  Huibert Kwakernaak,et al.  Fuzzy random variables - I. definitions and theorems , 1978, Inf. Sci..

[18]  Tanja Neumann Mean Variance Analysis In Portfolio Choice And Capital Markets , 2016 .

[19]  Viswanathan Arunachalam,et al.  Introduction to Mathematical Finance , 2012 .

[20]  Marc C. Steinbach,et al.  Markowitz Revisited: Mean-Variance Models in Financial Portfolio Analysis , 2001, SIAM Rev..

[21]  Yuji Yoshida An estimation model of value-at-risk portfolio under uncertainty , 2009, Fuzzy Sets Syst..