Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using COAMPS-TC

Abstract : A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC TM ) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real-time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal grid spacing of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of real-time forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 seasons in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC predictions have smaller intensity errors than other real-time dynamical models for forecasts beyond the 30 h time. Real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of the model to capture both the intensity and the fine-scale features (e.g., eyewall, rainbands), in agreement with observations. The results of this research highlight the promise of high-resolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.