NARAC Modeling During the Response to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Emergency

This paper summarizes the activities of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant crisis. NARAC provided a wide range of products and analyses as part of its support including: (1) Daily Japanese weather forecasts and hypothetical release (generic source term) dispersion predictions to provide situational awareness and inform planning for U.S. measurement data collection and field operations; (2) Estimates of potential dose in Japan for hypothetical scenarios developed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to inform federal government considerations of possible actions that might be needed to protect U.S. citizens in Japan; (3) Estimates of possible plume arrival times and dose for U.S. locations; and (4) Plume model refinement and source estimation based on meteorological analyses and available field data. The Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) deployed personnel to Japan and stood up 'home team' assets across the DOE complex to aid in assessing the consequences of the releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The DOE Nuclear Incident Team (NIT) coordinated response activities, while DOE personnel provided predictive modeling, air and ground monitoring, sample collection, laboratory analysis, and data assessment and interpretation. DOE deployed the Aerial Measuring System (AMS), Radiological Assistance Program (RAP) personnel, and the Consequence Management Response Team (CMRT) to Japan. DOE/NNSA home team assets included the Consequence Management Home Team (CMHT); National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training Site (REAC/TS); and Radiological Triage. NARAC was activated by the DOE/NNSA on March 11, shortly after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami occurred. The center remained on active operations through late May when DOE ended its deployment to Japan. Over 32 NARAC staff members, supplemented by other LLNL scientists, invested over 5000 person-hours of time and generated over 300 analyses and predictions.