Sensitivity of Trajectory Prediction in Air Traffic Management

Trajectory prediction in air trafe c management computes the most likely or the most desirable aircraft trajectories by using models of aircraft performance and atmospheric conditions, as well as measurements of aircraft states. In comparison, actual trajectories are obtained using feedback control from a pilot or autopilot to track e ight objectives, while theaircrafte iesthrough an actual atmosphere. This paperintroduces the concept ofclosedloop sensitivities, which are dee ned as differences between actual and computed trajectories per unit of modeling errors, in thepresenceof pilot/autopilotfeedback controls.Modeling errorsareexpressed asuncertain parameters and/or uncertain functions. Pilot/autopilot control actions are approximated by nonlinear feedback control laws, designedwith themethod of feedback linearization. Both theaircraft equations of motion and the feedbackcontrol laws are linearized around computed reference trajectories, and these linearized equations are used to determine expressions for closed-loop terminal sensitivities. The proposed method is applied to the Center/Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System as well as e ight management systems.

[1]  Robert F. Stengel,et al.  Flight Control Design using Nonlinear Inverse Dynamics , 1986, 1986 American Control Conference.

[2]  Heinz Erzberger,et al.  Design and evaluation of an air traffic control Final Approach Spacing Tool , 1991 .

[3]  Kenneth H. Izumi.  Sensitivity Studies of 4D Descent Strategies in an Advanced Metering Environment , 1986, 1986 American Control Conference.

[4]  John E. Robinson,et al.  KNOWLEDGE-BASED RUNWAY ASSIGNMENT FOR ARRIVAL AIRCRAFT IN THE TERMINAL AREA , 1997 .

[5]  Yiyuan Zhao,et al.  Capture conditions for merging trajectory segments to model realistic aircraft descents , 1996 .

[6]  Thomas J. Davis,et al.  The Final Approach Spacing Tool , 1994 .

[7]  Yiyuan Zhao,et al.  Trajectory Synthesis for Air Traffic Automation , 1997 .

[8]  J. Sørensen,et al.  Airborne Method to Minimize Fuel with Fixed Time-of-Arrival Constraints , 1981 .

[9]  D. H. Williams,et al.  Flight evaluation of the CTAS descent advisor trajectory prediction , 1995, Proceedings of 1995 American Control Conference - ACC'95.

[10]  Arthur E. Bryson,et al.  Applied Optimal Control , 1969 .

[11]  C. Bergh,et al.  TRACON Aircraft Arrival Planning and Optimization Through Spatial Constraint Satisfaction , 1995 .

[12]  David H. Williams.  Fuel penalties and time flexibility of 4D flight profiles under mismodeled wind conditions , 1987 .

[13]  Sam Liden.  Practical considerations in optimal flight management computations , 1986 .

[14]  J. W. Burrows.  Fuel-optimal aircraft trajectories with fixed arrival times , 1981 .

[15]  H. Erzberger,et al.  Constrained optimum trajectories with specified range , 1980 .

[16]  John E. Robinson,et al.  FUZZY REASONING-BASED SEQUENCING OF ARRIVAL AIRCRAFT IN THE TERMINAL AREA , 1997 .

[17]  Heinz Erzberger,et al.  Design of Center-TRACON Automation System , 1993 .

[18]  A. Chakravarty,et al.  Four-dimensional fuel-optimal guidance in the presence of winds , 1985 .

[19]  Michael A. Bolender.  Assessment of CTAS ETA prediction capabilities , 1994 .

[20]  Richard Bortins,et al.  Effects of Weather Forecasting Errors on Air Traffic Control Automation System Performance , 1995 .

[21]  Robert A. Vivona,et al.  Field evaluation of Descent Advisor trajectory prediction accuracy , 1996 .

[22]  H. Erzberger.  Automation of On-Board Flightpath Management , 1981 .

[23]  Heinz Erzberger,et al.  The Center-Tracon Automation System: Simulation and Field Testing , 1995 .