Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Abstract Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.

[1]  Zhanle Du,et al.  A summary of the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema , 2008 .

[2]  Jia-long Wang,et al.  Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase (2000--2001) of Solar Cycle 23 , 2003 .

[3]  Huaning Wang,et al.  Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques , 2008 .

[4]  Hugh Hudson,et al.  SOLAR ACTIVITY , 2016 .

[5]  Liyun Zhang,et al.  Correlation Between Solar Flare Productivity and Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties , 2006 .

[6]  P. Young,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[7]  Zhanle Du,et al.  Relationship Between Solar Maximum Amplitude and Max-Max Cycle Length , 2006 .

[8]  Zhi-Zhi Du.  A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24 , 2006 .

[9]  Yihua Yan,et al.  Topology of Magnetic Field and Coronal Heating in Solar Active Regions – II. The Role of Quasi-Separatrix Layers , 2000 .

[10]  B. Low,et al.  Modeling solar force-free magnetic fields , 1990 .

[11]  Yihua Yan,et al.  Topology of Magnetic Field and Coronal Heating in Solar Active Regions , 2001 .

[12]  Prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 23 , 1999 .

[13]  Rongzhi Li,et al.  Support Vector Machine combined with K-Nearest Neighbors for Solar Flare Forecasting , 2007 .

[14]  Yanmei Cui,et al.  Correlation between solar flare productivity and photospheric vector magnetic fields , 2008 .

[15]  Jia-long Wang,et al.  Verification of a similar cycle prediction for the ascending and peak phases of Solar Cycle 23 , 2002 .

[16]  G Zhang.  "ARIMA" MODELIS uSED FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE MEDIUM-TERM PREDICTION OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY , 1986 .

[17]  Rongzhi Li,et al.  Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting , 2008 .

[18]  Huaning Wang,et al.  The validity of the boundary integral equation for magnetic field extrapolation in open space above a spherical surface , 2006 .

[19]  Gwilym M. Jenkins,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1971 .