Modelling of cross-country rail services

Abstract In 1981, The Transport Studies Group carried out a study of cross-country rail services in Southern England. A high sensitivity to service frequency where relatively low frequencies were offered, and a strong deterrent effect associated with the need to interchange, were identified. Since then one of the routes studied, Brighton/Portsmouth-Southampton-Bristol-Cardiff, has been upgraded, changing factors identified as likely to affect passenger demand in the earlier study. New demand models have been calibrated. A previously calibrated model from the original study was rerun, testing how well it predicted the aggregate growth in demand following service improvements. A high sensitivity to frequency is confirmed. A survey of through travellers originating on the Brighton-Havant section confirmed the importance of interchange and the desirability of providing through services even at limited frequencies.