Improved estimation is a prerequisite for successful terminal guidance

Abstract Successful interception of manoeuvring anti-surface missiles that are expected in the future can be achieved only if the estimation errors against manoeuvring targets can be minimized. The paper raises new ideas for an improved estimation concept by separating the tasks of the estimation system and by explicit use of the time-to-go in the process. The outcome of the new approach is illustrated by results of Monte Carlo simulations in generic interception scenarios. The results indicate that if an eventual ‘jump’ in the commanded target acceleration is detected sufficiently rapidly, small estimation errors and consequently precise guidance can be obtained.

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