Statistical analysis of Salmonella test data and comparison to results of animal cancer tests.

A quantitative framework for the analysis of results of the Salmonella (Ames) test is presented, and the relationship between mutagenesis and carcinogenesis is examined. Color graphics are used for the Salmonella data to describe variability, and trends across multiple chemicals and test conditions. Positivity in the Salmonella test, using statistical criteria to classify results, is compared to positivity in carcinogenesis bioassays for 48 chemicals tested in NCI/NTP-sponsored programs. Sensitivity of the Salmonella test across 5 tester strains was 91% (21/23), while specificity was only 36% (9/25). Results were most concordant for TA100 Aroclor-induced rat S9: sensitivity was 87%, specificity 64%. The correlation of mutagenic potency and carcinogenic potency was 0.41 (p less than 0.001) for 80 chemicals, using results from both the general published literature and the NCI/NTP-sponsored programs. After removal of 3 extreme values, the correlation was 0.24 (p = 0.04).

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