CUMULATIVE ADVANTAGE: CONDUCTORS AND INSULATORS OF HEAVY-TAILED PRODUCTIVITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY STARS

We use the metatheoretical principle of cumulative advantage as a framework to understand the presence of heavy-tailed productivity distributions and productivity stars. We relied on 229 datasets including 633,876 productivity observations collected from approximately 625,000 individuals in occupations including research, entertainment, politics, sports, sales, and manufacturing, among others. We implemented a novel methodological approach developed in the field of physics to assess the precise shape of the productivity distribution rather than relying on a normal versus nonnormal artificial dichotomy. Results indicate that higher levels of multiplicity of productivity, monopolistic productivity, job autonomy, and job complexity (i.e., conductors of cumulative advantage) are associated with a higher probability of an underlying power law distribution, whereas lower productivity ceilings (i.e., insulator of cumulative advantage) are associated with a lower probability. In addition, higher levels of multiplicity of productivity, monopolistic productivity, and job autonomy were associated with a greater proportion of productivity stars (i.e., productivity distributions with heavier tails), whereas lower productivity ceilings were associated with a smaller proportion of productivity stars (i.e., productivity distributions with lighter tails). Results serve as a building block for future theory development and testing efforts aimed at understanding why, when, and how the distribution of individual productivity may follow a nonnormal curve—and to what extent. We also discuss implications for organizations and management in terms of the design and implementation of human resource systems (e.g., selection, training, compensation), as well as for individuals interested in becoming productivity stars themselves.

[1]  H. John Bernardin,et al.  Performance appraisal : assessing human behavior at work , 1984 .

[2]  Wayne F. Cascio,et al.  3 Staffing Twenty‐first‐century Organizations , 2008 .

[3]  Pierre Azoulay,et al.  Superstar Extinction , 2008 .

[4]  Adam M. Grant Leading with Meaning: Beneficiary Contact, Prosocial Impact, and the Performance Effects of Transformational Leadership , 2012 .

[5]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  An Introduction to Econophysics: Contents , 1999 .

[6]  Angelo S. DeNisi,et al.  Performance Appraisal, Performance Management, and Firm-Level Performance: A Review, a Proposed Model, and New Directions for Future Research , 2014 .

[7]  John E. Hunter,et al.  Individual differences in output variability as a function of job complexity. , 1990 .

[8]  John W. Boudreau,et al.  Beyond HR: The New Science of Human Capital , 2007 .

[9]  Misako Takayasu,et al.  Predictability of currency market exchange , 2001 .

[10]  Chi-Hyon Lee,et al.  Preferential Linkage and Network Evolution: A Conceptual Model and Empirical Test in the U.S. Video Game Sector , 2004 .

[11]  Jacob Cohen The Cost of Dichotomization , 1983 .

[12]  Manfred Schroeder,et al.  Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes From an Infinite Paradise , 1992 .

[13]  Johannes Glückler Economic Geography and the Evolution of Networks , 2007 .

[14]  F. Morgeson,et al.  Extending Corporate Social Responsibility Research to the Human Resource Management and Organizational Behavior Domains: A Look to the Future , 2013 .

[15]  G. Crawford,et al.  Disobeying Power Laws: Perils for Theory and Method , 2012 .

[16]  R. Merton The Matthew Effect in Science, II: Cumulative Advantage and the Symbolism of Intellectual Property , 1988, Isis.

[17]  T. Bauer,et al.  Perceived overqualification and its outcomes: the moderating role of empowerment. , 2009, The Journal of applied psychology.

[18]  K. Cook Exchange and Power in Networks of Interorganizational Relations , 1976 .

[19]  Amalya L. Oliver,et al.  Three Levels of Networking for Sourcing Intellectual Capital in Biotechnology , 1997 .

[20]  S. Spilerman,et al.  Stratification and attainment in a large Japanese firm , 1995 .

[21]  Boris Groysberg,et al.  Hiring Stars and Their Colleagues: Exploration and Exploitation in Professional Service Firms , 2009, Organ. Sci..

[22]  J. Ivancevich Contrast Effects in Performance Evaluation and Reward Practices , 1983 .

[23]  M. Spence Job Market Signaling , 1973 .

[24]  William H. Bommer,et al.  ON THE INTERCHANGEABILITY OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE MEASURES OF EMPLOYEE PERFORMANCE: A META-ANALYSIS , 1995 .

[25]  Lauren S. Simon,et al.  Time is on my side: time, general mental ability, human capital, and extrinsic career success. , 2010, The Journal of applied psychology.

[26]  Eean R. Crawford,et al.  A Configural Theory of Team Processes: Accounting for the Structure of Taskwork and Teamwork , 2013 .

[27]  Herman Aguinis,et al.  Star Performers in Twenty‐First Century Organizations , 2014 .

[28]  W. Souma Physics of Personal Income , 2002, cond-mat/0202388.

[29]  Jesper B. Sørensen,et al.  The interplay between theory and method , 2007 .

[30]  Chockalingam Viswesvaran,et al.  Perspectives on Models of Job Performance , 2000 .

[31]  M. Brewer,et al.  Intellectual Capital and the Birth of U.S. Biotechnology Enterprises , 1994 .

[32]  Marc Galanter,et al.  Tournament of Lawyers: The Transformation of the Big Law Firm , 1991 .

[33]  M. Spence Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational Structure of Markets , 2002 .

[34]  F. Schmidt,et al.  The validity and utility of selection methods in personnel psychology: Practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research findings. , 1998 .

[35]  D. Lubinski,et al.  Who Rises to the Top? Early Indicators , 2013, Psychological science.

[36]  T. Judge,et al.  How the rich (and happy) get richer (and happier): relationship of core self-evaluations to trajectories in attaining work success. , 2008, The Journal of applied psychology.

[37]  C. H. Lawshe,et al.  Principles of personnel testing , 1949 .

[38]  A guided walk down Wall Street: An introduction to Econophysics , 2004, cond-mat/0408143.

[39]  B. M. Hill,et al.  A Simple General Approach to Inference About the Tail of a Distribution , 1975 .

[40]  Richard R. Reilly,et al.  Effect of prior performance information on ratings of present performance: Contrast versus assimilation revisited. , 1988 .

[41]  Donald C. Hambrick,et al.  Toward more accurate contextualization of the CEO effect on firm performance , 2014 .

[42]  William Shockley,et al.  On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories , 1957, Proceedings of the IRE.

[43]  David R. Segal,et al.  The Reward System in British and American Science. , 1979 .

[44]  John P. Campbell,et al.  Modeling the performance prediction problem in industrial and organizational psychology. , 1990 .

[45]  J. Hackman,et al.  Development of the Job Diagnostic Survey , 1975 .

[46]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[47]  Wayne F. Cascio,et al.  Applied Psychology in Human Resource Management , 1998 .

[48]  B. McKelvey,et al.  Beyond Gaussian averages: redirecting international business and management research toward extreme events and power laws , 2007 .

[49]  M. Glynn Innovative Genius: A Framework for Relating Individual and Organizational Intelligences to Innovation , 1996 .

[50]  Vernon W. Ruttan,et al.  INDUCED INNOVATION, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY AND PATH DEPENDENCE: SOURCES OF TECHNICAL CHANGE* , 1997 .

[51]  Wayne F. Cascio,et al.  Research in industrial and organizational psychology from 1963 to 2007: changes, choices, and trends. , 2008, The Journal of applied psychology.

[52]  James E. Rosenbaum,et al.  Tournament Mobility: Career Patterns in a Corporation. , 1979 .

[53]  E. Franck,et al.  Talent and/or Popularity: What Does it Take to Be a Superstar? , 2010 .

[54]  J. Weitz A Neglected Concept in the Study of Job Satisfaction , 1952 .

[55]  J. Edwards,et al.  The Presence of Something or the Absence of Nothing: Increasing Theoretical Precision in Management Research , 2010 .

[56]  Alexander Oettl,et al.  Reconceptualizing Stars: Scientist Helpfulness and Peer Performance , 2012, Manag. Sci..

[57]  Barry Gerhart,et al.  Sources of variance in incumbent perceptions of job complexity. , 1988 .

[58]  Carmi Schooler,et al.  Work and Personality: An Inquiry into the Impact of Social Stratification. , 1986 .

[59]  Boris Groysberg,et al.  Can They Take It With Them? The Portability of Star Knowledge Workers' Performance , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[60]  Bill Curtis,et al.  Measuring the Psychological Complexity of Software Maintenance Tasks with the Halstead and McCabe Metrics , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[61]  Steven G. Westlund,et al.  Journal of Information Technology Management Retaining Talent: Assessing Job Satisfaction Facets Most Significantly Related to Software Developer Turnover Intentions , 2022 .

[62]  D. Beal,et al.  Cohesion and performance in groups: a meta-analytic clarification of construct relations. , 2003, The Journal of applied psychology.

[63]  A. Minbashian,et al.  Short-term and long-term within-person variability in performance: an integrative model. , 2014, The Journal of applied psychology.

[64]  Cees van Leeuwen,et al.  Emergence of scale-free network with chaotic units , 2003 .

[65]  David P. Darcy,et al.  Exploring Individual Characteristics and Programming Performance: Implications for Programmer Selection , 2005, Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[66]  Thorbjørn Knudsen,et al.  Economic selection theory , 2002 .

[67]  D. Kipnis,et al.  Situational influences on the use of power. , 1970 .

[68]  T Maillart,et al.  Empirical tests of Zipf's law mechanism in open source Linux distribution. , 2008, Physical review letters.

[69]  B. Mandelbrot “New Methods of Statistical Economics,” revisited: Short versus long tails and Gaussian versus power-law distributions , 2009 .

[70]  A. Phelps,et al.  Patterns of Destination Repeat Business: British Tourists in Mallorca, Spain , 1989 .

[71]  Stephen E. Humphrey,et al.  Integrating motivational, social, and contextual work design features: a meta-analytic summary and theoretical extension of the work design literature. , 2007, The Journal of applied psychology.

[72]  Timothy T. Baldwin,et al.  Transfer of Training: A Meta-Analytic Review , 2010 .

[73]  Z. Burda,et al.  Is Econophysics a Solid Science , 2003, cond-mat/0301096.

[74]  S. Ceci,et al.  Peer-review practices of psychological journals: The fate of published articles, submitted again , 1982, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[75]  C. Fritz,et al.  Work characteristics, challenge appraisal, creativity, and proactive behavior: A multi‐level study , 2010 .

[76]  E. Morrison,et al.  NEWCOMERS' RELATIONSHIPS: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORK TIES DURING SOCIALIZATION , 2002 .

[77]  Boris Groysberg,et al.  Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth: How High-Status Individuals Decrease Group Effectiveness , 2011, Organ. Sci..

[78]  Wayne F. Cascio,et al.  Staffing Twenty-first-century Organizations , 2008 .

[79]  Brian L. Connelly,et al.  Tournament Theory , 2014 .

[80]  Adam M. Grant,et al.  Mission possible? The performance of prosocially motivated employees depends on manager trustworthiness. , 2009, The Journal of applied psychology.

[81]  PERSONNEL ARE PEOPLE , 2011 .

[82]  R. Althauser INTERNAL LABOR MARKETS , 1989 .

[83]  Robert E. Ployhart,et al.  The effects of staffing and training on firm productivity and profit growth before, during, and after the Great Recession. , 2014, The Journal of applied psychology.

[84]  Andrew C. Inkpen,et al.  Social Capital, Networks, and Knowledge Transfer , 2005 .

[85]  William B. Stevenson,et al.  Managerial Compensation Based on Organizational Performance: A Time Series Analysis of the Effects of Merit Pay , 1985 .

[86]  Benoit B. Mandelbrot,et al.  "New Methods of Statistical Economics, " revisited: Short versus long tails and Gaussian versus power-law distributions , 2009, Complex..

[87]  A. O’Rand,et al.  The Race Is to the Swift: Socioeconomic Origins, Adult Education, and Wage Attainment1 , 2004, American Journal of Sociology.

[88]  S. Solomon,et al.  Spontaneous Scaling Emergence In Generic Stochastic Systems , 1996 .

[89]  Herman Aguinis,et al.  The Too-Much-of-a-Good-Thing Effect in Management , 2013 .

[90]  B. Boghosian Kinetics of wealth and the Pareto law. , 2014, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[91]  W. Arthur,et al.  INCREASING RETURNS AND LOCK-IN BY HISTORICAL EVENTS , 1989 .

[92]  James B. Oldroyd,et al.  Catching Falling Stars: A Human Resource Response to Social Capital's Detrimental Effect of Information Overload on Star Employees , 2012 .

[93]  S. Towers,et al.  Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins , 2012, 1209.2690.

[94]  Stephen E. Humphrey,et al.  The Work Design Questionnaire (WDQ): developing and validating a comprehensive measure for assessing job design and the nature of work. , 2006, The Journal of applied psychology.

[95]  Stephen Cole,et al.  Social Stratification in Science , 1974 .

[96]  Joel Podolny A Status-Based Model of Market Competition , 1993, American Journal of Sociology.

[97]  D. Sornette,et al.  Heavy-tailed distribution of cyber-risks , 2008, 0803.2256.

[98]  Brian L. Connelly,et al.  Signaling Theory: A Review and Assessment , 2011 .

[99]  Adam M. Grant,et al.  The performance implications of ambivalent initiative: The interplay of autonomous and controlled motivations , 2011 .

[100]  The Kinetics of Wealth and the Origin of the Pareto Law , 2012, 1212.6300.

[101]  James W. Beck,et al.  On the Distribution of Job Performance: The Role of Measurement Characteristics in Observed Departures from Normality , 2013 .

[102]  Bernard Elbaum Cumulative or comparative advantage? British competitiveness in the early 20th century , 1990 .

[103]  Mark L. Lengnick-Hall,et al.  Understanding Work and Knowledge Management from a Knowledge-in-Practice Perspective , 2013 .

[104]  James M. LeBreton,et al.  Answers to 20 Questions About Interrater Reliability and Interrater Agreement , 2008 .

[105]  Joseph Tiffin,et al.  Industrial psychology, 5th ed. , 1965 .

[106]  D. Organ,et al.  A META-ANALYTIC REVIEW OF ATTITUDINAL AND DISPOSITIONAL PREDICTORS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CITIZENSHIP BEHAVIOR , 1995 .

[107]  S Solomon,et al.  Power-law distributions and Lévy-stable intermittent fluctuations in stochastic systems of many autocatalytic elements. , 1999, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[108]  F. Schmidt,et al.  Individual differences in productivity: An empirical test of estimates derived from studies of selection procedure utility. , 1983 .

[109]  J. Schumpeter,et al.  Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy , 1943 .

[110]  L. Borghans,et al.  Superstardom and Monopolistic Power: Why Media Stars Earn More than their Marginal Contribution to Welfare , 1998 .

[111]  S. Rothmann,et al.  THE BIG FIVE PERSONALITY DIMENSIONS AND JOB PERFORMANCE , 2003 .

[112]  S. Winter,et al.  Evolutionary theorizing in economics , 2002 .

[113]  R. M. Hall,et al.  A framework linking intangible resources and capabilities to sustainable competitive advantage , 1993 .

[114]  A. van de Rijt,et al.  The Matthew effect in science funding , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[115]  Scott F. Latham Contrasting Strategic Response to Economic Recession in Start‐Up versus Established Software Firms** , 2009 .

[116]  Edwin A. Fleishman,et al.  Leadership Climate, Human Relations Training, and Supervisory Behavior , 1953 .

[117]  Stephen J Ceci,et al.  The rhetoric and reality of gap closing: when the "have-nots" gain but the "haves" gain even more . , 2005, The American psychologist.

[118]  Michael T. Sliter,et al.  The employee as a punching bag: The effect of multiple sources of incivility on employee withdrawal behavior and sales performance , 2012 .

[119]  Bill McKelvey,et al.  From Gaussian to Paretian Thinking: Causes and Implications of Power Laws in Organizations , 2009 .

[120]  Herman Aguinis Performance Management , 2005 .

[121]  Thomas H. Mcinish,et al.  Part IV: How Do Reputations Affect Corporate Performance?: The Value of Corporate Reputation: Evidence from the Equity Markets , 1997 .

[122]  Melvin Blumberg,et al.  The Missing Opportunity in Organizational Research: Some Implications for a Theory of Work Performance , 1982 .

[123]  Benoit B. Mandelbrot The variation of the prices of cotton, wheat, and railroad stocks, and of some financial rates , 1997 .

[124]  T Maillart,et al.  Quantification of deviations from rationality with heavy tails in human dynamics. , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[125]  Theodore Kunin The Construction of a New Type of Attitude Measure , 1955 .

[126]  Derek de Solla Price,et al.  A general theory of bibliometric and other cumulative advantage processes , 1976, J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci..

[127]  D. North Competing Technologies , Increasing Returns , and Lock-In by Historical Events , 1994 .

[128]  Albert,et al.  Emergence of scaling in random networks , 1999, Science.

[129]  Norman R. F. Maier,et al.  Psychology in Industrial Organizations , 1973 .

[130]  Steven Andrew Culpepper,et al.  Scale Coarseness as a Methodological Artifact , 2009 .

[131]  Herman Aguinis,et al.  THE BEST AND THE REST: REVISITING THE NORM OF NORMALITY OF INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE , 2012 .

[132]  Roger V. Gould The Origins of Status Hierarchies: A Formal Theory and Empirical Test1 , 2002, American Journal of Sociology.

[133]  F. Massey The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit , 1951 .

[134]  Amy Wrzesniewski,et al.  I won't let you down... or will I? Core self-evaluations, other-orientation, anticipated guilt and gratitude, and job performance. , 2010, The Journal of applied psychology.

[135]  Murray R. Barrick,et al.  THE BIG FIVE PERSONALITY DIMENSIONS AND JOB PERFORMANCE: A META-ANALYSIS , 1991 .

[136]  Arthur G. Bedeian,et al.  The cesspool syndrome: How dreck floats to the top of declining organizations , 1998 .

[137]  B. Dankbaar,et al.  From Complex Organizations with Simple Jobs to Simple Organizations with Complex Jobs , 1997 .

[138]  Andriani Pierpaolo,et al.  From Skew Distributions to Power-law Science , 2011 .

[139]  J. Barney,et al.  The Future of Resource-Based Theory , 2011 .

[140]  John A. Buzacott,et al.  The impact of worker differences on production system output , 2002 .

[141]  R. Arvey,et al.  Performance evaluation in work settings. , 1998, Annual review of psychology.

[142]  Michael Gort,et al.  First Mover Advantage and the Speed of Competitive Entry, 1887-1986 , 1999 .