Toward Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Outages

Weather and environmental factors have played significant roles in historical major outages and blackouts in interconnected power systems and should be considered in simulation and risk assessment of outages. This paper proposes a method for the risk assessment of weather-related outages. An outage rate model considering weather conditions and line conductor temperatures is proposed based on the analysis of historical outage records and weather-dependent outage mechanisms of power lines. Accordingly, an analytical form of line outage probabilities is derived. Then the risk assessment is implemented based on a Markovian tree search method. The influences of different weather and environmental factors on the outage rates are tested and analyzed on an example line segment model. The effectiveness of the risk assessment method is demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bus system model with winter and summer scenarios.

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