Simulationen internationaler Beziehungen: Ein Überblick

Die Forschung uber internationale Beziehungen sieht sich seit jeher vor erhebliche theoretische und methodologische Probleme gestellt. Diese sind prinzipiell zwar nicht anderer Natur als in den anderen Sozialwissenschaften auch, sie wirken sich jedoch bei der Erforschung der internationalen Politik sehr viel gravierender aus. Es handelt sich dabei einmal um jene Schwierigkeiten, die sich aus der unsicheren Datenbasis ergeben, auf deren Grundlage die Theorien internationaler Beziehungen operieren mussen (Powell 1969, Singer 1965). Zunachst unterliegt der groste Teil der aktuellen Vorgange in der internationalen Politik der Geheimhaltung. Daten daruber sind erst gar nicht zuganglich, und soweit es doch der Fall ist, handelt es sich um regierungsamtliche, offizielle Versionen oder um offiziose oder private Quellen. In beiden Fallen kann die Richtigkeit der Aussagen nicht uberpruft werden. Die entsprechenden Daten weisen also Verzerrungen auf, deren Ausmas und Umfang kaum feststellbar ist. Das gilt weitgehend auch fur historisches Material. (Knorr & Rosenau 1969, S.10 f.)

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