Entry timing, exploration, and firm survival in the early U.S. bicycle industry

We explore the relationship between a firm's entry timing and its probability of surviving the early, uncertain period of its industry, and consider the trade-off between entering early and potentially establishing a strong position in the industry vs. waiting until technological uncertainty is reduced. We hypothesize that, owing to inertial forces, firms that enter the industry at the earliest point in its history are least likely to make the conversion to the product generation that becomes the dominant design in the industry. Exploration through the introduction of new products appears to reflect a local search process and retards the transition to the dominant design. We also hypothesize that, though firms entering early may exhibit longer life spans, their advantages are limited to the period before the emergence of the dominant design. We test our hypotheses in the early U.S. bicycle industry, and find evidence consistent with the idea that inertia limits firms' abilities to make the transition between generations of product configurations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.