Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly

We consider an infinitely-repeated oligopoly in which at each period firms not only serve the spot market by either competing in prices or quantities but also have the opportunity to trade forward contracts. Contrary to the pro-competitive results of finite-horizon models, we find that the possibility of forward trading allows firms to sustain collusive profits that otherwise would not be possible. The result holds both for price and quantity competition and follows because (collusive) contracting of future sales is more effective in deterring deviations from the collusive plan than in inducing the previously identified pro-competitive effects.

[1]  David M Newbery,et al.  Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market , 1998 .

[2]  Dilip Abreu Extremal equilibria of oligopolistic supergames , 1986 .

[3]  P. Mahenc,et al.  Softening competition through forward trading , 2004, J. Econ. Theory.

[4]  Simone Campanoni Competition , 1866, Nature.

[5]  R. Pindyck VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND OIL MARKETS , 2003 .

[6]  George Hendrikse,et al.  The Theory of Industrial Organization , 1989 .

[7]  Andrew Sweeting,et al.  Market Power in the England and Wales Wholesale Electricity Market 1995-2000 , 2004 .

[8]  Blaise Allaz,et al.  Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency , 1993 .

[9]  Dilip Abreu On the Theory of Infinitely Repeated Games with Discounting , 1988 .

[10]  A. Daughety Cournot Competition , 2006 .

[11]  Blaise Allaz,et al.  Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions , 1992 .

[12]  James L. Smith,et al.  Inscrutable OPEC: Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis , 2002 .

[13]  P. Joskow Electricity Sector Restructuring and Competition: Lessons Learned , 2003 .

[14]  Ward S. Curran,et al.  The Industrial Organization of Futures Markets , 1985 .

[15]  Hugh Rudnick,et al.  Second Generation Electricity Reforms in Latin America and the California Paradigm , 2002 .

[16]  Richard Green,et al.  The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales , 2003 .

[17]  J. Geanakoplos,et al.  Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements , 1985, Journal of Political Economy.

[18]  R. Porter,et al.  NONCOOPERATIVE COLLUSION UNDER IMPERFECT PRICE INFORMATION , 1984 .

[19]  Garth Saloner,et al.  A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms , 1986 .

[20]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  The Fat-Cat Effect, the Puppy-Dog Ploy, and the Lean and Hungry Look , 1984 .

[21]  C. Coq Long-Term Supply Contracts and Collusion in the Electricity Markets , 2003 .

[22]  Christopher R. Knittel,et al.  Price Ceilings as Focal Points for Tacit Collusion: Evidence from Credit Cards , 2001 .

[23]  Ronald W. Anderson The Industrial organization of futures markets , 1984 .

[24]  Garth Saloner,et al.  A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Business Cycles and Price Wars During Booms , 1984 .