Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future

In this introduction to the present issue, we give a brief description of the phenomenon. Subsequently, we discuss the major theoretical accounts, focusing on how these are related to the papers included in the issue.

[1]  M. McCloskey,et al.  Misleading postevent information and memory for events: arguments and evidence against memory impairment hypotheses. , 1985, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[2]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  Outcome feedback: hindsight and information , 1989 .

[3]  R. Pohl,et al.  Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility , 2003, Memory.

[4]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty* , 2003 .

[5]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating? , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[6]  P. Juslin,et al.  The Confidence-Hindsight Mirror Effect in Judgment: An Accuracy-Assessment Model for the Knew-It-All-Along Phenomenon , 1998 .

[7]  F. Strack,et al.  An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon , 2003, Memory.

[8]  E. Loftus,et al.  On the permanence of stored information in the human brain. , 1980, The American psychologist.

[9]  Jochen Musch,et al.  Personality differences in hindsight bias , 2003, Memory.

[10]  B. Renner.  Hindsight bias after receiving self-relevant health risk information: A motivational perspective , 2003, Memory.

[11]  L. Cohen,et al.  "I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability , 2003, Memory.

[12]  E. Erdfelder,et al.  Hindsight bias in political elections , 2003, Memory.

[13]  R. Hastie,et al.  Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. , 1990 .

[14]  R. Hertwig,et al.  The Reiteration Effect in Hindsight Bias , 1997 .

[15]  E. Tulving.  Memory research is not a zero-sum game. , 1991 .

[16]  R. Pohl,et al.  SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias , 2003, Memory.

[17]  Edgar Erdfelder,et al.  Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. , 1998 .

[18]  B. R. Forer,et al.  The fallacy of personal validation; a classroom demonstration of gullibility. , 2011, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[19]  Anne Maass,et al.  Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction? , 1996 .

[20]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past , 2003, Memory.

[21]  D. Stahlberg,et al.  Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions , 2003, Memory.

[22]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. , 1975 .

[23]  Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski,et al.  The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis , 1991 .

[24]  M. Pezzo,et al.  Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias? , 2003, Memory.