Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage—A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)--e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

[1]  Wim Turkenburg,et al.  The performance of the Norwegian carbon dioxide, capture and storage innovation system , 2009 .

[2]  M. Akai,et al.  Public acceptance of CO2 capture and storage technology: A survey of public opinion to explore influential factors , 2005 .

[3]  B. Metz IPCC special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage , 2005 .

[4]  Barbara Praetorius,et al.  Carbon capture and storage: settling the German coal vs. climate change dispute? , 2008 .

[5]  Scott Jiusto,et al.  Assessing innovation in emerging energy technologies: Socio-technical dynamics of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in the USA , 2010 .

[6]  Jennie C. Stephens,et al.  Growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) for climate change mitigation , 2006 .

[7]  M. V. Asselt,et al.  The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development , 2005 .

[8]  Jeffrey M. Berry,et al.  Validity and Reliability Issues In Elite Interviewing , 2002, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[9]  J F Ahearne,et al.  Intergenerational Issues Regarding Nuclear Power, Nuclear Waste, and Nuclear Weapons , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[10]  Igor Bulatov,et al.  An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK , 2006 .

[11]  Stephen H. Schneider,et al.  Climate change policy : a survey , 2003 .

[12]  Tarla Rai Peterson,et al.  Policy stakeholders and deployment of wind power in the sub-national context: A comparison of four U.S. states , 2010 .

[13]  Howard J. Herzog,et al.  Cost and U.S. public policy for new coal power plants with carbon capture and sequestration , 2009 .

[14]  S. Shackley,et al.  Stakeholder perceptions Of CO2 capture and storage in Europe: Results from a survey , 2007 .

[15]  M Granger Morgan,et al.  Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[16]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Prospects for Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Assuming Their Technological Learning , 2004 .

[17]  Tooraj Jamasb,et al.  Learning Curves For Energy Technology: A Critical Assessment , 2007 .

[18]  Filip Johnsson,et al.  Ramp-up of CO2 capture and storage within Europe , 2008 .

[19]  Jonathan G. Koomey,et al.  The risk of surprise in energy technology costs , 2007 .

[20]  Gregory C. Unruh,et al.  Globalizing carbon lock-in , 2006 .

[21]  Lena Neij,et al.  Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments , 2008 .

[22]  T. P. Hughes,et al.  The Social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology , 1989 .

[23]  André Faaij,et al.  Identification of early opportunities for CO2 sequestration—worldwide screening for CO2-EOR and CO2-ECBM projects , 2005 .

[24]  Jim Watson,et al.  Key policy considerations for facilitating low carbon technology transfer to developing countries , 2008 .

[25]  Simon Shackley,et al.  Tackling CO2 reduction in India through use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS): Prospects and challenges , 2008 .

[26]  Vivek Utgikar,et al.  Energy forecasting: Predictions, reality and analysis of causes of error , 2006 .

[27]  S. Barrett The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering , 2008 .

[28]  Jonas Anshelm Mellan frälsning och domedag : : om kärnkraftens politiska idéhistoria i Sverige 1945-1999 , 2000 .

[29]  Max H. Bazerman,et al.  Climate Change as a Predictable Surprise , 2005 .

[30]  Marko P. Hekkert,et al.  The influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in emerging renewable energy technology; biomass gasification projects in the Netherlands , 2007 .

[31]  G. Tichy Over-Optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight , 2002 .

[32]  Jill Jäger,et al.  Current thinking on using scientific findings in environmental policy making , 1998 .

[33]  P. V. Notten,et al.  The Future Shocks: On the Role of Discontinuity in Scenario Development , 2005 .

[34]  Gordon MacKerron,et al.  Nuclear costs: Why do they keep rising? , 1992 .

[35]  Paul Upham,et al.  The acceptability of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in Europe: An assessment of the key determining factors. Part 2. The social acceptability of CCS and the wider impacts and repercussions of its implementation , 2009 .

[36]  Heleen de Coninck,et al.  Trojan horse or horn of plenty? Reflections on allowing CCS in the CDM , 2008 .

[37]  Clair Gough State of the Art in Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the UK: an experts' review , 2008 .

[38]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  Perils of Long-Range Energy Forecasting , 2000 .

[39]  Gregg Marland,et al.  CO2 capture and storage: Another Faustian Bargain? , 2007 .

[40]  J. Quiggin Uncertainty and Climate Change Policy , 2008 .

[41]  Marko P. Hekkert,et al.  Societal acceptance of carbon capture and storage technologies , 2007 .

[42]  Aviel Verbruggen,et al.  Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy , 2010 .

[43]  Tooraj Jamasb,et al.  Delivering a low-carbon electricity system : technologies, economics, and policy , 2008 .

[44]  Joris Koornneef,et al.  Life cycle assessment of a pulverized coal power plant with post-combustion capture, transport and storage of CO2 , 2008 .

[45]  B. Rockman,et al.  Conducting and Coding Elite Interviews , 2002, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[46]  M. G. Morgan,et al.  Subjective judgments by climate experts. , 1995 .

[47]  Neil F. Doherty,et al.  A re-conceptualization of the interpretive flexibility of information technologies: redressing the balance between the social and the technical , 2006, Eur. J. Inf. Syst..

[48]  George Burt,et al.  Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with scenario methodology to help identify surprises, disruptions and discontinuities , 2007 .

[49]  David William Keith Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect 1 , 2000, The Ethics of Nanotechnology, Geoengineering and Clean Energy.

[50]  E. Rochon,et al.  False hope: why carbon capture and storage won't save the climate. , 2008 .

[51]  J. Canadell,et al.  Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[52]  Theo J.B.M. Postma,et al.  How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool , 2005 .

[53]  R. Merton,et al.  Genesis and development of a scientific fact , 1979 .