Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet

Electric-drive vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles, are emerging as less polluting alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, it is important to assess their penetration in the vehicle market in the future. A ‘two-step’ approach is used to estimate the optimum market penetration of lightweight and electric-drive vehicles in the long-term and the impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet, focusing on Japan. First, an optimization model is used to estimate the vehicle market composition in 2050. Then, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate light-duty vehicle fleet energy and material consumption, CO2 emissions and cost. Internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles dominate in the Base scenario. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized. Shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO2 emissions are prioritized. CO2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicle diffusion has the largest CO2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared to the 2050 baseline value; with the net cash flow peaking at 10.2 billion USD/year in 2035 and becoming negative after 2044.

[1]  Mikiya Araki,et al.  Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet , 2016 .

[2]  Andrew G Simpson.  Parametric modelling of energy consumption in road vehicles , 2005 .

[3]  M. Shahidehpour,et al.  Accelerating the Global Adoption of Electric Vehicles: Barriers and Drivers , 2015 .

[4]  W.G.J.H.M. van Sark,et al.  Provision of regulating - and reserve power by electric vehicle owners in the Dutch market , 2017 .

[5]  Reinhard Madlener,et al.  Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis , 2012 .

[6]  Ibrahim Dincer,et al.  Economic and environmental comparison of conventional, hybrid, electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles , 2006 .

[7]  Joseph Sarkis,et al.  Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050 , 2016 .

[8]  T. Turrentine,et al.  Barriers to the adoption of fuel cell vehicles: A qualitative investigation into early adopters attitudes , 2017 .

[9]  Jorge Acevedo.  El transporte como soporte al desarrollo de Colombia. Una vision al 2040 , 2009 .

[10]  D. Banister,et al.  Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability , 2013 .

[11]  Gillian Harrison,et al.  An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe , 2017 .

[12]  Atsushi Akisawa,et al.  Market penetration speed and effects on CO2 reduction of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Japan , 2012 .

[13]  Jeremy Gregory,et al.  Dynamic fleet-based life-cycle greenhouse gas assessment of the introduction of electric vehicles in the Portuguese light-duty fleet , 2015, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[14]  Juneseuk Shin,et al.  A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach , 2016 .

[15]  William W. Nazaroff,et al.  Achieving deep cuts in the carbon intensity of U.S. automobile transportation by 2050: complementary roles for electricity and biofuels. , 2013, Environmental science & technology.

[16]  Andreas Müller,et al.  Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria—A model based analysis 2010–2050 , 2011 .

[17]  Timothy J Wallington,et al.  Light-duty vehicle CO2 targets consistent with 450 ppm CO2 stabilization. , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[18]  Aie,et al.  Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 , 2006 .

[19]  Guihua Wang,et al.  Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts , 2011 .

[20]  M Melaina,et al.  Role of fuel carbon intensity in achieving 2050 greenhouse gas reduction goals within the light-duty vehicle sector. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[21]  Garrett. Barter,et al.  A parametric study of light-duty natural gas vehicle competitiveness in the United States through 2050 , 2013 .

[22]  Eriko Nishimura,et al.  Assessing the fuel Use and greenhouse gas emissions of future light-duty vehicles in Japan , 2011 .

[23]  Sang Yong Park,et al.  Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects , 2011 .

[24]  M. Hadi Amini,et al.  Simultaneous allocation of electric vehicles’ parking lots and distributed renewable resources in smart power distribution networks , 2017 .

[25]  Nigel P. Brandon,et al.  Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK , 2011 .

[26]  Willett Kempton,et al.  Vehicle-to-grid power fundamentals: Calculating capacity and net revenue , 2005 .

[27]  Aie.  World Energy Outlook 2011 , 2001 .

[28]  Joan M. Ogden,et al.  Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions. , 2012 .

[29]  Karsten Kieckhäfer,et al.  Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition , 2016 .

[30]  D. Zaninelli,et al.  “Team Play” between Renewable Energy Sources and Vehicle Fleet to Decrease Air Pollution , 2015 .

[31]  B. Wee,et al.  The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption , 2014 .

[32]  Thomas H. Etsell,et al.  Forecasting performance and market penetration of fuel cells in transportation , 2005 .

[33]  M. Hadi Amini,et al.  Allocation of electric vehicles' parking lots in distribution network , 2014, ISGT 2014.

[34]  P. Eng.  CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: highlights , 2009 .

[35]  Masaru Nakano,et al.  Portfolio analysis of alternative fuel vehicles considering technological advancement, energy security and policy , 2017 .

[36]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030 , 2015 .

[37]  Guzay Pasaoglu,et al.  Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe , 2012 .

[38]  L. R. Johnson,et al.  Plug-in electric vehicle market penetration and incentives: a global review , 2015, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[39]  Duk Hee Lee,et al.  Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model , 2013 .

[40]  日本エネルギー経済研究所計量分析ユニット.  EDMC handbook of energy & economic statistics , 2013 .

[41]  Arnulf Grubler,et al.  Technology and global change , 1998 .

[42]  Fuquan Zhao,et al.  Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles , 2015 .

[43]  André Faaij,et al.  Energy use, cost and CO 2 emissions of electric cars , 2011 .

[44]  Mikiya Araki,et al.  Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet , 2015 .

[45]  Hewu Wang,et al.  China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts , 2014 .

[46]  M A Delucchi,et al.  An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[47]  Ken Oshiro,et al.  Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan , 2015 .