GLDA-FP: Gaussian LDA Model for Forward Prediction

In social networks, information propagation is affected by diversity factors. In this work, we study the formation of forward behavior, map into multidimensional driving mechanisms and apply the behavioral and structural features to forward prediction. Firstly, by considering the effect of behavioral interest, user activity and network influence, we propose three driving mechanisms: interest-driven, habit-driven and structure-driven. Secondly, by taking advantage of the Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model in dealing with problems of polysemy and synonymy, the traditional text modeling method is improved by Gaussian distribution and applied to user interest, activity and influence modeling. In this way, the user topic distribution for each dimension can be obtained regardless of whether the word is discrete or continuous. Moreover, the model can be extended using the pre-discretizing method which can help LDA detect the topic evolution automatically. By introducing time information, we can dynamically monitor user activity and mine the hidden behavioral habit. Finally, a novel model, Gaussian LDA, for forward prediction is proposed. The experimental results indicate that the model not only mine user latent interest, but also improve forward prediction performance effectively.