Application of Bayesian techniques to material strength evaluation and calibration of confidence factors
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A fundamental phase in the assessment of existing reinforced concrete buildings and in their strengthening design is the knowledge procedure. This is based on the collection of different kinds of information regarding: a) the structural system configuration, b) the materials strength, c) the reinforcing steel details, and d) the conditions of the structural elements. The Italian Code (OPCM 3431, 03-05-05, Allegato 2) as well as the most advanced International Codes (FEMA 356, EC8 Part 3) specifies data collection procedures and ensuing Confidence Factors (CF) to apply to the mean values of the materials strength, based on the completeness and reliability of the information gathered (the so called Level of Knowledge). Difference in the knowledge procedure about the single structural parameters and the actual possibility of propagation of information gathered on single members unlikely can be accounted for by a single CF. This paper proposes a method for evaluation of material strength and calibration of the relevant CF based on a bayesian procedure; the procedure takes into account the reliability of the results of tests executed by different methods and gives an indication on how to join such information.
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