Study of the GM(1,1)-MARKOV chain model on highway freight forecast

For the first time, gray model and MARKOV chain are integrated to forecast highway freight in order to reach above aims in this paper, moreover,which is illustrated in detail by the highway freight forecast in the 10th 5years plan. Firstly, a GM(1,1 ) is built to get the dynamic baseline for highway freight development. Secondly, on the basis of the GM(1,1 ), MARKOV chain is applied to achieve state transition probability matrix. Thirdly, highway freight interval is forecasted and analyzed in the form of probability by the system state classification, the calculation of the residue between true value and model fitting value, and the standardization of deviation of the residue. It's proved in theory and practice that the forecast results not only are more reliable but also can help the decision maker with grasping the highway freight development tendency in general and making proper decision.