Chapter 9 – Operational Short-term Volcanic Hazard Analysis: Methods and Perspectives

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) is the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space–time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, short-term PVHA is essential for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic), and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a new methodology for the short-term PVHA based on the Bayesian Event Tree model, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the probabilities of ash fall loading in the surroundings of the volcano. As an example, we apply this procedure to the 1982–1984 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei, Italy.

[1]  G. Macedonio,et al.  Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) , 2009 .

[2]  W. Marzocchi,et al.  BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting , 2008 .

[3]  W. Marzocchi,et al.  Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples , 2012, Journal of Applied Volcanology.

[4]  G. P. Ricciardi,et al.  Short-term ground deformations and seismicity in the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): an example of active block-resurgence in a densely populated area , 1999 .

[5]  G. Orsi,et al.  Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera , 2004 .

[6]  F. Innocenti,et al.  Phlegraean Fields 1982–1984: Brief chronicle of a volcano emergency in a densely populated area , 1984 .

[7]  W. Marzocchi,et al.  Long-term forecast of eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) , 2009 .

[8]  Roberto Tonini,et al.  Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru) , 2014, Bulletin of Volcanology.

[9]  Antonella Longo,et al.  A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard , 2005, Comput. Geosci..

[10]  G. Natale,et al.  Geophysical and geochemical modelling of the 1982 1984 unrest phenomena at Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy) , 1991 .

[11]  G. Macedonio,et al.  A model for the numerical simulation of tephra fall deposits , 2005 .

[12]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  The scientific management of volcanic crises , 2012 .

[13]  Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos,et al.  OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization , 2011 .

[14]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand , 2012, Bulletin of Volcanology.

[15]  Maria Laura Mastellone,et al.  Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[16]  G. Woo,et al.  Principles of volcanic risk metrics: Theory and the case study of Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, Italy , 2009 .

[17]  Paolo Gasparini,et al.  Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius , 2004 .

[18]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) , 2010 .

[19]  Warner Marzocchi,et al.  Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy , 2012, Bulletin of Volcanology.