Through-Life NEC Scenario Development

Scenarios are an important planning tool used by individuals, businesses and governments (especially in the military domain), but many of the currently used approaches focus solely on acute probabilistic timeframes and specific metricated instances of possible future states. Using a mixed method research methodology, we develop a scenario approach in which multiple timeframes are accommodated by fitting vignettes within each other to represent different time levels. This has the advantage of presenting the end-to-end process of capability development and instantiation. We describe the methodology employed to generate such a scenario as a demonstration aid for a large, multidisciplinary research program in systems of systems engineering. The process of scenario generation was an effective integration tool within this program (that included twelve distributed research groups). The resultant scenario enabled engagement of multiple stakeholders in an integrated demonstration of systems related research outputs. We recommend a new class of scenario (a “research scenario”) for incorporation within the standard classifications of scenario types.

[1]  E. Dammers.  Leren van de toekomst; over de rol van scenario's bij strategische beleidsvorming , 2000 .

[2]  JarkeMatthias,et al.  Scenarios in System Development , 1998 .

[3]  Richard E. Hayes,et al.  Power to the Edge: Command, Control in the Information Age , 2003 .

[4]  Kawano Masaya,et al.  Policy Making for Global Transportation Planning using the Delphi-Scenario Writing with a New Concept of 'Future Vision' , 2005 .

[5]  Guido Reger,et al.  Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight , 2005 .

[6]  J. Hertin,et al.  Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’ , 2002 .

[7]  M. Godet,et al.  Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios , 1996 .

[8]  John M. Carroll,et al.  Five reasons for scenario-based design , 2000, Interact. Comput..

[9]  Paschalina Ziamou,et al.  The essentials of scenario writing , 2001 .

[10]  Sally Sieloff Magnan,et al.  Research Design: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches , 1997 .

[11]  M. V. Asselt,et al.  An updated scenario typology , 2003 .

[12]  Yi Yue,et al.  An Holistic View of UK Military Capability Development , 2009 .

[13]  Kevin Barraclough,et al.  I and i , 2001, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[14]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments , 2007 .

[15]  J F Suri,et al.  Scenario building as an ergonomics method in consumer product design. , 2000, Applied ergonomics.

[16]  John W. Creswell,et al.  Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches , 2010 .

[17]  Yi Yue,et al.  The Influence of the Concept of Capability-based Management on the Development of the Systems Engineering Discipline , 2009 .

[18]  George Wright,et al.  Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business , 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[19]  David Mercer,et al.  Scenarios made easy , 1995 .

[20]  John M. Carroll,et al.  Scenario-based design: envisioning work and technology in system development: john wiley & sons , 1995 .

[21]  Frances A. O'Brien,et al.  Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[22]  Michael Henshaw,et al.  Managing Innovation: A Multidisciplinary Scenario Development Approach , 2009, APMS.

[23]  George Wright,et al.  The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning , 2005 .

[24]  J Michael,et al.  Collaborative, academic-industry research approach for advancing Systems Engineering , 2009 .

[25]  Thomas J. Chermack,et al.  Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses , 2005 .