Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature

The optimistic bias is defined as judging one's own risk as less than the risk of others. Researchers have identified numerous personal and situational factors that moderate the extent to which people display the bias. It is unclear, however, whether these moderators affect the bias by influencing people's personal risk estimates or their risk estimates for a target. A review of moderators of the optimistic bias reveals evidence for both influences. Moderators associated with negative affect (negative mood, dysphoria, trait and state anxiety, event severity, and proximity of feedback) and control related moderators (perceived control and prior experience) appear primarily to affect personal risk estimates. Positive mood affects target risk estimates. Finally, moderators that surround the comparison process appear to have different effects. Specifically, the type of comparison target appears to affect target risk estimates, whereas attention to personal risk-related behaviors affects personal risk estimates.

[1]  J. Shepperd,et al.  The Affective Consequences of Expected and Unexpected Outcomes , 2002, Psychological science.

[2]  M. Helweg-Larsen.  (The Lack of) Optimistic Biases in Response to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake: The Role of Personal Experience , 1999 .

[3]  J. Shepperd,et al.  Bracing for the Worst: Severity, Testing, and Feedback Timing as Moderators of the Optimistic Bias , 1998 .

[4]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Situated Optimism: Specific Outcome Expectancies and Self-Regulation , 1998 .

[5]  M. Eysenck,et al.  Cognitive biases for future negative events as a function of trait anxiety and social desirability , 1997 .

[6]  W. Klein,et al.  Social comparison and unrealistic optimism about personal risk. , 1997 .

[7]  W M Klein.  Objective standards are not enough: affective, self-evaluative, and behavioral responses to social comparison information. , 1997, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[8]  C. Brewin,et al.  Illusions of well-being and the repressive coping style. , 1996, The British journal of social psychology.

[9]  The relativity of unrealistic optimism. , 1996, Acta psychologica.

[10]  D. Sarel,et al.  Nonunique invulnerability : Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments , 1996 .

[11]  Alexander J. Rothman,et al.  Absolute and Relative Biases in Estimations of Personal Risk , 1996 .

[12]  J. Ouellette,et al.  Abandoning Unrealistic Optimism: Performance Estimates and the Temporal Proximity of Self-Relevant Feedback , 1996 .

[13]  Peter R. Harris,et al.  Sufficient grounds for optimism? The relationship between perceived controllability and optimistic bias , 1996 .

[14]  Diederik A. Stapel,et al.  Just as if it happened to me : The impact of vivid and self-relevant information on risk judgments , 1996 .

[15]  W. Klein,et al.  Unrealistic Optimism: Present and Future , 1996 .

[16]  W. Klein.  MAINTAINING SELF-SERVING SOCIAL COMPARISONS: ATTENUATING THE PERCEIVED SIGNIFICANCE OF RISK-INCREASING BEHAVIORS , 1996 .

[17]  P. Harris,et al.  Give ‘Em Enough Rope: Perception of Health and Safety Risks in Bungee Jumpers , 1996 .

[18]  Wilma Otten,et al.  Context effects in the measurement of optimism in probability judgment , 1996 .

[19]  Unrealistic optimism and genetic risk , 1996 .

[20]  Vera Hoorens,et al.  Self-favoring biases for positive and negative characteristics : Independent phenomena ? , 1996 .

[21]  Mark Snyder,et al.  Unrealistic Optimism: Self-Enhancement or Person Positivity? , 1995 .

[22]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Effects of mindset on positive illusions. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[23]  Richard Shepherd,et al.  Perceived behavioural control, unrealistic optimism and dietary change: An exploratory study , 1995, Appetite.

[24]  M. L. Klotz,et al.  Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. , 1995 .

[25]  L D Cohn,et al.  Risk-perception: differences between adolescents and adults. , 1995, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[26]  D. R. Lehman,et al.  Cultural variation in unrealistic optimism: Does the West feel more vulnerable than the East? , 1995 .

[27]  V. Strecher,et al.  Changing inaccurate perceptions of health risk: results from a randomized trial. , 1995, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[28]  P. Harris,et al.  The illusion of control and optimism about health: on being less at risk but no more in control than others. , 1994, The British journal of social psychology.

[29]  Vivian C. Sheer,et al.  The Development and Validation of a Model Explaining Sexual Behavior among College Students: Implications for AIDS Communication Campaigns. , 1994 .

[30]  W. Klein,et al.  Exaggerated Self-Assessments and the Preference for Controllable Risks , 1994 .

[31]  R. Nesse,et al.  Risk Perception by Patients with Anxiety Disorders , 1994, The Journal of nervous and mental disease.

[32]  M. Gerrard,et al.  Comparison of Marine and College Women's HIV/AIDS‐Relevant Sexual Behaviors1 , 1994 .

[33]  J. van der Pligt,et al.  Perceiving AIDS-related risks: accuracy as a function of differences in actual risk , 1994 .

[34]  J van der Pligt,et al.  Perceiving AIDS-related risk: accuracy as a function of differences in actual risk. , 1994, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[35]  Skin cancer: Assessing perceived risk and behavioural attitudes , 1993 .

[36]  A. Abele,et al.  Mood influences on health‐related judgments: Appraisal of own health versus appraisal of unhealthy behaviours , 1993 .

[37]  F P McKenna,et al.  Exploring the limits of optimism: the case of smokers' decision making. , 1993, British journal of psychology.

[38]  Bram P. Buunk,et al.  SOCIAL-COMPARISON OF HEALTH RISKS - LOCUS OF CONTROL, THE PERSON-POSITIVITY BIAS, AND UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM , 1993 .

[39]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Adolescent (in)vulnerability. , 1993, The American psychologist.

[40]  Frank P. McKenna,et al.  It won't happen to me: Unrealistic optimism or illusion of control? , 1993 .

[41]  Elaine Vaughan,et al.  Chronic exposure to an environmental hazard: risk perceptions and self-protective behavior. , 1993, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[42]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  AIDS risk perceptions and decision biases. , 1993 .

[43]  R. A. Drake,et al.  Line bisecting as a predictor of personal optimism and desirability of risky behaviors. , 1992, Acta psychologica.

[44]  J. Burger,et al.  Changes in and Generalization of Unrealistic Optimism Following Experiences with Stressful Events: Reactions to the 1989 California Earthquake , 1992 .

[45]  J. van der Pligt,et al.  Risk perception and behavior: pessimism, realism, and optimism about AIDS-related health behavior , 1992 .

[46]  M. Gladis,et al.  High school students' perceptions of AIDS risk: realistic appraisal or motivated denial? , 1992, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[47]  S. Moore,et al.  Adolescents' perceptions of friends' and parents' attitudes to sex and sexual risk‐taking , 1991 .

[48]  B. Whitley,et al.  Perceptions of Vulnerability to Pregnancy and the Use of Effective Contraception , 1991 .

[49]  F. McKenna,et al.  Factors underlying illusory self-assessment of driving skill in males and females. , 1991, Accident Analysis and Prevention.

[50]  F. Gibbons,et al.  Effects of reviewing risk-relevant behavior on perceived vulnerability among women marines. , 1991, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[51]  D. Dunning,et al.  Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events? , 1991, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[52]  C. Dewberry,et al.  Effect of anxiety on optimism. , 1990, The Journal of social psychology.

[53]  W. B. Hansen,et al.  Perceived personal immunity: Beliefs about susceptibility to AIDS , 1990 .

[54]  A. Miller,et al.  What price attractiveness? Stereotype and risk factors in suntanning behavior. , 1990 .

[55]  J. M. Riche,et al.  Children's Health Comparisons of Their Parents With Specific Others , 1990 .

[56]  N. Weinstein,et al.  Determinants of Self‐Protective Behavior: Home Radon Testing , 1990 .

[57]  C. Dewberry,et al.  Anxiety and unrealistic optimism. , 1990, Journal of Social Psychology.

[58]  R S Sandler,et al.  Risk perceptions and participation in colorectal cancer screening. , 1990, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[59]  P. Salovey,et al.  Influence of mood on health-relevant cognitions. , 1989, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[60]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Perceptions of personal susceptibility to harm. , 1989 .

[61]  J. Burger,et al.  The Illusion of Unique Invulnerability and the Use of Effective Contraception , 1988, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[62]  I. Rosenstock,et al.  Social Learning Theory and the Health Belief Model , 1988, Health education quarterly.

[63]  Irene Hanson Frieze,et al.  Describing the crime victim: Psychological reactions to victimization. , 1987 .

[64]  Norman Miller,et al.  Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: an empirical and theoretical review , 1987 .

[65]  Conceptions of own versus others' outcomes: Manipulation by monaural attentional orientation , 1987 .

[66]  J. Greenberg,et al.  Self-regulatory perseveration and the depressive self-focusing style: a self-awareness theory of reactive depression. , 1987, Psychological bulletin.

[67]  J. Greenberg,et al.  Depression, self-focused attention, and expectancies for positive and negative future life events for self and others. , 1987, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[68]  L. Alloy,et al.  Depression and pessimism for the future: biased use of statistically relevant information in predictions for self versus others. , 1987, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[69]  Paul D. Cleary,et al.  Taking care: Why people take precautions against health risks , 1987 .

[70]  C. Malotte,et al.  Perceived personal immunity: the development of beliefs about susceptibility to the consequences of smoking. , 1986, Preventive medicine.

[71]  L. Perloff,et al.  Self–other judgments and perceived vulnerability to victimization. , 1986 .

[72]  J. Greenberg,et al.  Evidence for a depressive self-focusing style , 1986 .

[73]  D. A. Kenny,et al.  The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. , 1986, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[74]  J. Greenberg,et al.  Depression and preference for self-focusing stimuli after success and failure. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[75]  J. Greenberg,et al.  Compensatory self-inflation: A response to the threat to self-regard of public failure. , 1985 .

[76]  P. Pietromonaco,et al.  The nature of negative thoughts in depression. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[77]  Stephen G. Gilligan,et al.  Cognitive consequences of emotional arousal. , 1985 .

[78]  R. A. Drake,et al.  Lateral asymmetry of personal optimism , 1984 .

[79]  Dan Zakay,et al.  The Influence of Perceived Event’s Controllability on Its Subjective Occurrence Probability , 1984 .

[80]  M. Becker,et al.  The Health Belief Model: A Decade Later , 1984, Health education quarterly.

[81]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility. , 1983 .

[82]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism , 1982 .

[83]  N. Weinstein.  Unrealistic optimism about future life events , 1980 .

[84]  Laurie Larwood,et al.  Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self-Serving Biases , 1978 .

[85]  Laurie Larwood,et al.  Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning. , 1977 .

[86]  M. Becker,et al.  Health Belief Model and Personal Health Behavior , 1976 .

[87]  M. Becker.  The Health Belief Model and Sick Role Behavior* , 1974 .

[88]  Mark H. Lee.  From dissertation abstracts international , 1974, COMG.

[89]  Ds Gochman,et al.  Consistency in children's perceptions of vulnerability to health problems. , 1972, Health services reports.

[90]  Samuel R. Friedman,et al.  Depression: Clinical, Experimental, and Theoretical Aspects , 1968 .

[91]  I. Rosenstock,et al.  A national study of health beliefs. , 1966, Journal of health and human behavior.