Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

When evaluating temporal trends, three perspectives to be considered are age, period and cohort. Age refers to chronological age of a subject when the outcome of interest occurs, and period the corresponding calendar date. Cohort refers to the year of birth, which identifies a generation, but this may be calculated by taking the difference between age and period, which can make these analyses difficult to interpret. Approaches for analyzing these temporal perspectives are described, including approaches to the identifiability problem that arises when one attempts to fit models that include all three temporal parameters at the same time. These methods are demonstrated using data on births per 1000 women among US blacks. Keywords: age-period-cohort models; identifiability; birth rates

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