A Review of Deterministic, Stochastic and Hybrid Vehicular Exhaust Emission Models

Vehicles spend more time near junctions and intersections in different driving modes, i.e., queuing, decelerating or accelerating and thus generating more pollutants than at road links [Claggett, M., Shrock, J., Noll, K.E., 1981. Carbon monoxide near an urban intersection. Atmos. Environ. 15, 1633–1642]. As a result, the receptors in these urban corridors are prone to frequent exposures of high pollutant concentrations (episodic conditions). In order to predict such ‘episodes’, an air quality model, capable of estimating the entire range (middle and extremes) of pollutant concentration distribution is needed. Hybrid models (combining deterministic and statistical distribution models) have demonstrated the ability to predict the entire range of pollutant concentrations in such co mplex dispersion situations with reasonable accuracy [Jakeman, A., Simpson, R.W., Taylor, J.A., 1988. Modelling distributions of air pollutant concentrations-III: Hybrid modelling deterministic-statistical distributions. Atmos. Environ. 22 (1) 163–174]. The present paper reviews the relevant deterministic and stochastic based vehicular exhaust emission models that may be hybridized and thus generate a hybrid model with improved prediction accuracy. The paper also describes the implications of hybrid models in formulating the Episodic-Urban Air Quality Management Plan (e-UAQMP).

[1]  David P. Chock,et al.  Pollutant dispersion near roadways — Experiments and modeling , 1982 .

[2]  Panos G. Georgopoulos,et al.  Statistical distributions of air pollutant concentrations. , 1982, Environmental science & technology.

[3]  Ari Karppinen,et al.  Evaluation of the CAR-FMI model against measurements near a major road , 2001 .

[4]  Preben Bo Mortensen,et al.  Air pollution from traffic and schizophrenia risk , 2004, Schizophrenia Research.

[5]  Allan H. Marcus.  Air pollutant averaging times: Notes on a statistical model , 1973 .

[6]  K. Wilson,et al.  Linear stochastic models for forecasting daily maxima and hourly concentrations of air pollutants , 1975 .

[7]  William A Nokes,et al.  EVALUATION OF THE CALINE4 LINE SOURCE DISPERSION MODEL FOR COMPLEX TERRAIN APPLICATION , 1986 .

[8]  N. Jenkins,et al.  Correlation Between NO And NO, RoadsideConcentrations, Traffic Volumes And LocalMeteorology At A Major London Route , 1970 .

[9]  Candis Claiborn,et al.  Statistical distributions of particulate matter and the error associated with sampling frequency , 2001 .

[10]  T. S. Panwar,et al.  Predicted and measured concentrations of traffic carbon monoxide over Delhi , 1990 .

[11]  Glen H. Lemon.  Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Based on Censored Samples , 1975 .

[12]  Michael Wolfe,et al.  J+ = J , 1994, ACM SIGPLAN Notices.

[13]  R. Larsen,et al.  A mathematical model for relating air quality measurements to air quality standards , 1971 .

[14]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  Real-time prediction of extreme ambient carbon monoxide concentrations due to vehicular exhaust emissions using univariate linear stochastic models , 2000 .

[15]  Giovanna Finzi,et al.  A mathematical model for air pollution forecast and alarm in an urban area , 1982 .

[16]  R. Simpson,et al.  Predicting frequency distributions for ozone, NO2 and TSP from restricted data sets , 1984 .

[17]  H. Künkel.  Frequency analysis. , 1978, Electroencephalography and clinical neurophysiology. Supplement.

[18]  Michel Benarie.  Fitting statistical distributions to air quality data by the maximum likelihood method , 1983 .

[19]  R. L. R. Salcedo,et al.  A Sequential Approach to Time-Series Analysis , 1992 .

[20]  N. Ostrouchov.  Effect of Cold Weather on Motor Vehicle Emissions and Fuel Economy , 1978 .

[21]  Wayne R. Ott,et al.  An evaluation of the methods of fractiles, moments and maximum likelihood for estimating parameters when sampling air quality data from a stationary lognormal distribution , 1984 .

[22]  A. Hayas,et al.  Application of spectral analysis to atmospheric dust pollution , 1982 .

[23]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Modeling distributions of air pollutant concentrations—III. The hybrid deterministic-statistical distribution approach , 1988 .

[24]  G G Clemena,et al.  Analysis and comparative evaluation of AIRPOL-4. , 1975 .

[25]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Modeling distributions of air pollutant concentrations—I. Identification of statistical models , 1986 .

[26]  Paolo Zannetti,et al.  Computer Techniques in Environmental Studies , 1899 .

[27]  F.T.M. Nieuwstadt.  Prediction of air pollution frequency distribution — Part II. The Gaussian plume model , 1980 .

[28]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  An averaging time model of SO2 frequency distributions from a single point source , 1984 .

[29]  C. Ray Thompson,et al.  A simplified fluorometric fluoride analyzer , 1967 .

[30]  D. E. Conlan,et al.  The introduction of local air quality management in the United Kingdom: A review and theoretical framework , 1996 .

[31]  F. Rando,et al.  Short-time fuzzy DAP predictor for air pollution due to vehicular traffic , 1997 .

[32]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Identification of a distributional model , 1985 .

[33]  M. Nouh.  Stochastic approach to CO sample size determination , 1987 .

[34]  J H Seinfeld,et al.  On frequency distributions of air pollutant concentrations. , 1976, Atmospheric environment.

[35]  I. Jolliffe.  Principal Component Analysis , 2002 .

[36]  Daniel Sperling,et al.  TRAFFIC EMISSION POLLUTION SAMPLING AND ANALYSIS ON URBAN STREETS WITH HIGH-RISING BUILDINGS , 2001 .

[37]  S. Gokhale,et al.  Size Distribution of Aerosols (PM10) and Lead (Pb) near Traffic Intersections in Mumbai (India) , 2004, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[38]  Robert E. Eskridge,et al.  Measurement and Prediction of Traffic-Induced Turbulence and Velocity Fields Near Roadways , 1983 .

[39]  J. R. Zimmerman,et al.  USER'S GUIDE FOR HIWAY. A HIGHWAY AIR POLLUTION MODEL , 1975 .

[40]  S.M.Shiva Nagendra.  Modelling of vehicular exhaust emissions for assessing the air quality near urban roads using artificial neural network , 2002 .

[41]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  The relationship between the ATDL model and the statistical distributions of wind speed and pollution data , 1985 .

[42]  Jerry A. Bullin,et al.  Evaluation of roadway pollutant dispersion models using mass flux profiles and mass conservation , 1982 .

[43]  F. Valero,et al.  STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS FOR DAILY AIR PARTICULATE IRON AND LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR MADRID, SPAIN , 1992 .

[44]  E. M. Roberts,et al.  Review of Statistics of Extreme Values with Applications to Air Quality Data Part I. Review , 1979 .

[45]  G Kurchatova,et al.  A study of the statistical distribution of chemical pollutants in air. , 1976, Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.

[46]  J L Beaton,et al.  AIR QUALITY MANUAL: VOL IV. MATHEMATICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING HIGHWAY IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY , 1972 .

[47]  M. Giugliano.  The development and application of empirical models for the high SO2 concentration in urban areas. , 1985, The Science of the total environment.

[48]  André Berger,et al.  Statistical Distributions of Daily and High Atmospheric So2-concentrations , 1982 .

[49]  R. Eskridge,et al.  ROADWAY: a numerical model for predicting air pollutants near highways. User's guide. Final report , 1987 .

[50]  Jaakko Kukkonen,et al.  Evaluation of a Gaussian and a Lagrangian model against a roadside data set, with emphasis on low wind speed conditions , 2001 .

[51]  Michael Claggett,et al.  Carbon monoxide near an urban intersection , 1981 .

[52]  A. J. Jakeman,et al.  Forecasting worst case pollution scenarios for acid gas and suspended particulates due to urban industrial development , 1985 .

[53]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Recursive estimation and forecasting of non‐stationary time series , 1990 .

[54]  George E. P. Box,et al.  Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems , 1975 .

[55]  Kim N. Dirks,et al.  A semi-empirical model for predicting the effect of changes in traffic flow patterns on carbon monoxide concentrations , 2003 .

[56]  Oliver Graham Sutton,et al.  A Theory of Eddy Diffusion in the Atmosphere , 1932 .

[57]  A. I. McLeod,et al.  Advances in Box-Jenkins modeling: 1. Model construction , 1977 .

[58]  E. Hernández,et al.  Frequency analysis of high CO concentrations in Madrid by stochastic process modelling , 1984 .

[59]  Ari Karppinen,et al.  A modelling system for predicting urban air pollution: model description and applications in the Helsinki metropolitan area , 2000 .

[60]  Steven C. Hillmer,et al.  Statistical models for ambient concentrations of carbon monoxide, lead, and sulfate based on the LACS data , 1978 .

[61]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  A model for estimating the effects of fluctuations in long term meteorology on observed maximum acid gas levels , 1984 .

[62]  Kazuyuki Shigemitsu,et al.  Simplified Pearson distributions applied to air pollutant concentration , 1980 .

[63]  Hitoshi Kono,et al.  A comparison of concentration estimates by the OMG VOLUME-SOURCE dispersion model with three line source dispersion models , 1990 .

[64]  M. Khare,et al.  Modelling of vehicular exhausts – a review , 2001 .

[65]  G. Fronza,et al.  Multivariate Stochastic Models of Sulphur Dioxide Pollution in an Urban Area , 1980 .

[66]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Modeling distributions of air pollutant concentrations—II. Estimation of one and two parameter statistical distributions , 1986 .

[67]  Walter F. Dabberdt,et al.  Dispersion modeling at urban intersections , 1995 .

[68]  A. Davison,et al.  On the statistical analysis of ambient ozone data when measurements are missing , 1987 .

[69]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  A hybrid model for predicting the distribution of sulphur dioxide concentrations observed near elevated point sources , 1987 .

[70]  Wayne R. Ott,et al.  A general purpose univariate probability model for environmental data analysis , 1976, Comput. Oper. Res..

[71]  Carlos Alberto Brebbia,et al.  Air pollution VIII , 2000 .

[72]  Albert H. Moore,et al.  Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of the Parameters of Gamma and Weibull Populations from Complete and from Censored Samples , 1965 .

[73]  Kim N. Dirks,et al.  A simple semi-empirical model for predicting missing carbon monoxide concentrations , 2002 .

[74]  Andrew C. Comrie,et al.  Climatology and forecast modeling of ambient carbon monoxide in Phoenix, Arizona , 1999 .

[75]  Anthony Jakeman,et al.  A hybrid atdl-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations , 1985 .

[76]  John S. Wilson,et al.  An Evaluation of Some Commonly Used Highway Dispersion Models , 1980 .

[77]  Hitoshi Kono,et al.  A micro-scale dispersion model for motor vehicle exhaust gas in urban areas—OMG volume-source model , 1990 .

[78]  Charles E Ward,et al.  CALINE2: AN IMPROVED MICROSCALE MODEL FOR THE DIFFUSION OF AIR POLLUTANTS FROM A LINE SOURCE , 1976 .

[79]  Ari Karppinen,et al.  A modelling system for predicting urban air pollution:: comparison of model predictions with the data of an urban measurement network in Helsinki , 2000 .

[80]  Peter-Johann Sturm,et al.  Chapter 7 New directions: Air pollution and road traffic in developing countries , 2002 .

[81]  D M Colwill,et al.  THE ESTIMATION OF AIR POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS FROM ROAD TRAFFIC , 1982 .

[82]  V H Waterfield,et al.  ESTIMATING AIR POLLUTION FROM ROAD TRAFFIC: A GRAPHICAL SCREENING METHOD , 1982 .

[83]  A J Hickman,et al.  Air pollution from traffic in topographically complex locations. , 1990, The Science of the total environment.

[84]  David T. Mage,et al.  Frequency distributions of hourly wind speed measurements , 1980 .

[85]  W Heinmiller.  EFFECTS OF LOW AMBIENT TEMPERATURE ON THE EXHAUST EMISSIONS AND FUEL ECONOMY OF 84 AUTOMOBILES IN CHICAGO , 1978 .

[86]  R. J. Farber,et al.  Time series analysis of an historical visibility data base , 1982 .

[87]  K. W. Ragland,et al.  Boundary layer model for air pollutant concentrations due to highway traffic. , 1975, Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association.

[88]  K. S. Rao,et al.  Analytical solutions of a gradient-transfer model for plume deposition and sedimentation , 1981 .

[89]  Walter H. Chan,et al.  Analysis of an acidic deposition episode at Dorset, Ontario , 1984 .

[90]  Trevor D. Davies,et al.  Regression and stochastic models for air pollution. II: Application of stochastic models to examine the links between ground-level smoke concentrations and temperature inversions , 1994 .

[91]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  APPLICATION OF INTERVENTION ANALYSIS FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CO POLLUTION CONTROL LEGISLATION IN INDIA , 1999 .

[92]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Recursive forecasting, smoothing and seasonal adjustment of non‐stationary environmental data , 1991 .

[93]  A. Cohen,et al.  Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Weibull Distribution Based On Complete and On Censored Samples , 1965 .

[94]  R. Eskridge,et al.  Experimental and theoretical study of the wake of a block-shaped vehicle in a shear-free boundary flow , 1982 .

[95]  M. Khare,et al.  Application of extreme value theory for predicting violations of air quality standards for an urban road intersection , 1999 .

[96]  G. T. Csanady,et al.  Crosswind shear effects on atmospheric diffusion , 1972 .

[97]  Richard E. Barlow,et al.  Averaging time and maxima for air pollution concentrations , 1972 .

[98]  A. Cohen,et al.  Progressively Censored Sampling in the Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution , 1977 .

[99]  W. Ott.  A physical explanation of the lognormality of pollutant concentrations. , 1990, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.

[100]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  The prediction of maximum air pollution concentrations for tsp and co using Larsen's model and the ATDL model , 1983 .

[101]  Kazuo Tanaka,et al.  Identification and analysis of fuzzy model for air pollution-an approach to self-learning control of CO concentration , 1992, Proceedings of the 1992 International Conference on Industrial Electronics, Control, Instrumentation, and Automation.

[102]  S. Rao,et al.  Dispersion of pollutants near highways. Data analysis and model evaluation. Final report, September 1975--July 1978 , 1979 .

[103]  Robert H. Aron,et al.  Statistical Forecasting Models:I. Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin , 1978 .

[104]  J. Hunt,et al.  Highway Modeling. Part I: Prediction of Velocity and Turbulence Fields in the Wake of Vehicles , 1979 .

[105]  Trevor D. Davies,et al.  Regression and stochastic models for air pollution—I. Review, comments and suggestions , 1994 .

[106]  Matthias Ketzel,et al.  Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements , 2000 .

[107]  Paolo Bolzern,et al.  A Stochastic Predictor of Air Pollution Based on Short-Term Meteorological Forecasts , 1981 .

[108]  M. Danard,et al.  Numerical Modeling of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations Near Highways , 1972 .

[109]  David P. Chock.  On estimating air pollution concentrations from a highway in an oblique wind , 1974 .

[110]  Uwe Schlink,et al.  A component time-series model for SO2 data: Forecasting, interpretation and modification , 1997 .

[111]  Ross B. Corotis,et al.  Estimating the maximum value of autocorrelated air quality measurements , 1982 .

[112]  David P. Chock,et al.  General motors sulfate dispersion experiment , 1980 .

[113]  N Moussiopoulos,et al.  Statistical analysis of environmental data as the basis of forecasting: an air quality application. , 2002, The Science of the total environment.

[114]  A. Comrie.  Comparing Neural Networks and Regression Models for Ozone Forecasting , 1997 .

[115]  Panos G. Georgopoulos,et al.  Statistical distributions of air pollutant concentrations , 1982 .

[116]  A. Trier,et al.  A time series investigation of visibility in an urban atmosphere - I , 1994 .

[117]  S. Batterman.  Optimal estimators for ambient air quality levels , 1992 .

[118]  E. M. Roberts,et al.  Review of Statistics of Extreme Values with Applications to Air Quality Data: Part II. Applications , 1979 .

[119]  A. J. Jakeman,et al.  Prediction of seasonal extremes of one-hour average urban CO concentrations , 1991 .

[120]  Amit Marmur,et al.  COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF SEVERAL MOBILE-SOURCE AND LINE-SOURCE MODELS IN ISRAEL , 2003 .

[121]  K E Noll,et al.  AIR MONITORING PROGRAM TO DETERMINE THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAYS ON AMBIENT AIR QUALITY , 1975 .

[122]  Cynthia S. Hirtzel,et al.  Statistics of extreme values of a first-order Markov normal process: An exact result , 1985 .

[123]  H. Heida,et al.  Traffic-related Environmental Impact Mapping In Downtown Amsterdam , 1970 .

[124]  M. Baker,et al.  The statistics of chemical trace concentrations in the steady state , 1984 .

[125]  Nozer D. Singpurwalla,et al.  Extreme Values from a Lognormal Law With Applications to Air Pollution Problems , 1972 .

[126]  Nicolás J. Scenna,et al.  A Neural Network Based Model For The Analysis OfCarbon Monoxide Contamination In The UrbanArea Of Rosario , 1997 .

[127]  Robert B. Randall.  Frequency Analysis , 1987 .

[128]  E. Hernández,et al.  State-Space Modeling for Atmospheric Pollution , 1991 .

[129]  Zoran Ristovski,et al.  Determination of average emission factors for vehicles on a busy road , 2003 .

[130]  Adam Hadley,et al.  A simple model which predicts some non-linear features between atmospheric sulphur and sulphur emissions. , 2002, Environmental pollution.

[131]  B. Fisher.  Fuzzy environmental decision-making: applications to air pollution , 2003 .

[132]  Hsin-Chung Lu,et al.  Estimating the frequency distributions of PM10 and PM2.5 by the statistics of wind speed at Sha-Lu, Taiwan. , 2002, The Science of the total environment.

[133]  Rashmi S. Patil,et al.  A GENERAL FINITE LINE SOURCE MODEL FOR VEHICULAR POLLUTION PREDICTION , 1989 .

[134]  S. Frankel,et al.  Stability conditions in the numerical treatment of parabolic differential equations , 1953 .

[135]  J. M. Norbeck,et al.  Ambient temperature effect on urban CO air quality , 1980 .

[136]  Michele Giugliano,et al.  The duration of high SO2 concentrations in an urban atmosphere , 1977 .

[137]  Paul E Benson,et al.  A REVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE CALINE3 AND 4 MODELS , 1992 .

[138]  M. Tartaglia,et al.  Predicting urban traffic air pollution: A gis framework , 1998 .

[139]  A. I. McLeod,et al.  Intervention Analysis in Water Resources , 1975 .

[140]  P. E. Benson.  CALINE4 - A DISPERSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS NEAR ROADWAYS. FINAL REPORT , 1984 .

[141]  John D. Butler,et al.  Gaussian plume dispersion model applicable to a complex motorway interchange , 1979 .

[142]  Lawrie Haynes.  THE HIGHWAYS AGENCY. , 1995 .

[143]  W. B. Petersen,et al.  USER'S GUIDE FOR HIWAY-2. A HIGHWAY AIR POLLUTION MODEL , 1980 .

[144]  Cincinnati.  WORKBOOK OF ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION ESTIMATES , 1970 .

[145]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  A method for predicting the frequency distribution of air pollution from vehicle traffic, basic meteorology, and historical concentrations to assist urban planning , 1991 .

[146]  I F Cohn,et al.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS , 1982 .

[147]  Thomas S. Shively.  An analysis of the long-term trend in ozone data from two Houston, Texas monitoring sites , 1990 .

[148]  Timothy V. Larson,et al.  Forecasting carbon monoxide concentrations near a sheltered intersection using video traffic surveillance and neural networks , 1996 .

[149]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  Line source emission modelling , 2002 .

[150]  A mathematical model of wind flow, vehicle wake, and pollutant concentration in urban road microenvironments. part I: model description , 1998 .

[151]  Wayne R. Ott,et al.  Refinements of the lognormal probability model for analysis of aerometric data , 1978 .

[152]  Douglas H. Lowenthal,et al.  Application of the factor-analysis receptor model to simulated urban- and regional-scale data sets , 1987 .

[153]  David P. Chock,et al.  General motors sulfate dispersion experiment—An overview of the wind, temperature, and concentration fields , 1977 .

[154]  F. Akeredolu,et al.  Atmospheric environment problems in Nigeria—An overview , 1989 .

[155]  H. Power.  Air pollution III , 1995 .

[156]  A. Jakeman,et al.  Statistical modeling of restricted pollutant data sets to assess compliance with air quality criteria , 1987, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[157]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  SHORT-TERM, REAL-TIME PREDICTION OF THE EXTREME AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS DUE TO VEHICULAR EXHAUST EMISSIONS USING TRANSFER FUNCTION-NOISE MODEL. , 2001 .

[158]  A. Jakeman,et al.  A hybrid model for predicting the distribution of pollutants dispersed from line sources. , 1985, The Science of the total environment.

[159]  G. C. Tiao,et al.  Analysis of Los Angeles Photochemical Smog Data: A Statistical Overview , 1975 .

[160]  S. Trivikrama Rao,et al.  Turbulent diffusion behind vehicles: experimentally determined turbulence mixing parameters , 1986 .

[161]  Tsuneo Tsukatani,et al.  Statistical model of air pollutant concentration and its application to the air quality standards , 1973 .

[162]  S T Rao,et al.  Suggestions for improvement of the EPA-HIWAY model , 1980 .

[163]  Gopal Sistla,et al.  A study of pollutant dispersion near highways , 1979 .

[164]  K. Shankar Rao.  ROADWAY-2: A Model for Pollutant Dispersion near Highways , 2002 .

[165]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  Principal component analysis of urban traffic characteristics and meteorological data , 2003 .

[166]  Wenceslao González-Manteiga,et al.  Time-series analysis for ambient concentrations , 1993 .

[167]  M. Giménez,et al.  Intercomparison of atmospheric dispersion models , 2003 .

[168]  D P Chock,et al.  A simple line-source model for dispersion near roadways. , 1978, Atmospheric environment.

[169]  G. Cats,et al.  Prediction of air pollution frequency distribution — Part I. The lognormal model , 1980 .

[170]  Richard E. Barlow,et al.  Averaging Time and Maxima for Dependent Observations , 1972 .

[171]  Jerry A. Bullin,et al.  Comparison of Roadway Pollutant Dispersion Models Using the Texas Data , 1982 .

[172]  Mukesh Khare,et al.  Performance evaluation of general finite line source model for Delhi traffic conditions , 1999 .

[173]  R. Simpson,et al.  Application of larsen's model to Brisbane, Australia , 1982 .

[174]  K. Hsu.  Time series analysis of the interdependence among air pollutants , 1992 .

[175]  P. A. Benson,et al.  CALINE3 - a versatile dispersion model for predicting air pollutant levels near highways and arterial streets. Model-simulation , 1980 .

[176]  H. J. Williamson,et al.  Review of receptor model fundamentals , 1984 .