Prediction of swimmability in a brackish water body

Purpose – The primary objective of this study is to develop a predictive model that will predict the swimmability of certain areas of a brackish water body (Lake Pontchartrain) based on physicochemical and meteorological conditions.Design/methodology/approach – Samples were collected and analyzed for bacteria indicator organisms at 13 sites along and adjacent to Lincoln Beach for four years. Physicochemical parameters and meteorological data were also recorded. A logistic regression model and an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model were both used to predict whether a lake condition is “safe to swim” or “not safe to swim”, given only physicochemical and meteorological parameters.Findings – Both models predicted very well the results observed when lake conditions were “safe to swim” (97.7 percent of time the statistical model predicted correctly and an average >99.5 percent of the time for the ANNs model). However, for conditions under which the lake water quality was “not safe to swim”, the statistical ...

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