How do loot boxes make money? An analysis of a very large dataset of real Chinese CSGO loot box openings

Loot boxes are a form of video game monetisation that shares formal similarities with gambling. There are concerns that loot box revenues are disproportionately drawn from a small percentage of heavily-involved individuals, as is the case with gambling, leading to the potential for financial harm. In this paper we analyse a dataset of 1,469,913 loot box purchases from 386,269 separate Chinese users of the game Counter-Strike: Global Offensive. The Gini coefficient was used to measure the distribution of spending, and how much spending was concentrated within top percentiles. It estimated the concentration of spending amongst loot box openers as lower than observed elsewhere amongst gamblers (95CI: 63.76% - 64.26%). However, the majority of loot box revenue is drawn from the top 10% of players, with 1% alone responsible for 26.33% of all revenue. Overall, this research provides a crucial first step in understanding the financial consequences of loot box monetisation.