A framework for community interactions under climate change.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on species is one of the biggest challenges that ecologists face. Predictions routinely focus on the direct effects of climate change on individual species, yet interactions between species can strongly influence how climate change affects organisms at every scale by altering their individual fitness, geographic ranges and the structure and dynamics of their community. Failure to incorporate these interactions limits the ability to predict responses of species to climate change. We propose a framework based on ideas from global-change biology, community ecology, and invasion biology that uses community modules to assess how species interactions shape responses to climate change.

[1]  C. Tebaldi,et al.  Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030 , 2008, Science.

[2]  G. Gilchrist.  Specialists and Generalists in Changing Environments. I. Fitness Landscapes of Thermal Sensitivity , 1995, The American Naturalist.

[3]  Thomas Park,et al.  Experimental Studies of Interspecies Competition II. Temperature, Humidity, and Competition in Two Species of Tribolium , 1954, Physiological Zoology.

[4]  D. Reznick,et al.  The population ecology of contemporary adaptations: what empirical studies reveal about the conditions that promote adaptive evolution , 2004, Genetica.

[5]  Kevin D Lafferty,et al.  The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. , 2010, Ecology.

[6]  A. Edwards,et al.  One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts , 2008, Science.

[7]  D. Ackerly.  Community Assembly, Niche Conservatism, and Adaptive Evolution in Changing Environments , 2003, International Journal of Plant Sciences.

[8]  D. Chivers,et al.  The direct and indirect effects of temperature on a predator-prey relationship , 2001 .

[9]  Jordi Bascompte,et al.  The assembly and disassembly of ecological networks , 2009, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[10]  R. Holt,et al.  How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease , 2003 .

[11]  Theodore Garland,et al.  Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming , 2009, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[12]  Jordi Bascompte,et al.  Plant-Animal Mutualistic Networks: The Architecture of Biodiversity , 2007 .

[13]  C. McMahon,et al.  Climate change and seal survival: evidence for environmentally mediated changes in elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, pup survival , 2005, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[14]  T. Sparks,et al.  Climate change and trophic interactions. , 1999, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[15]  Peter J. Gregory,et al.  Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. , 2009, Journal of experimental botany.

[16]  Christina Pagel,et al.  Managing the health effects of climate change , 2009 .

[17]  R. Ostfeld,et al.  Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota , 2002, Science.

[18]  J. Travis,et al.  Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. , 2007, Journal of theoretical biology.

[19]  M. Araújo,et al.  The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change , 2007 .

[20]  H. MacIsaac,et al.  Is invasion success explained by the enemy release hypothesis , 2004 .

[21]  Peter J. Morin,et al.  Environmental warming alters food-web structure and ecosystem function , 1999, Nature.

[22]  Benjamin S. Halpern,et al.  Temperature control of larval dispersal and the implications for marine ecology, evolution, and conservation , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[23]  V. Brown,et al.  Multitrophic Interactions in Terrestrial Systems , 1997 .

[24]  A. M. Olson,et al.  Role of scale and environmental factors in regulation of community structure. , 1990, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[25]  D. Tilman.  Competition and Biodiversity in Spatially Structured Habitats , 1994 .

[26]  J. Kingsolver,et al.  Biophysics, physiological ecology, and climate change: does mechanism matter? , 2005, Annual review of physiology.

[27]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[28]  W. Kurz,et al.  Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change , 2008, Nature.

[29]  M. Bertness,et al.  GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE INTERACTIONS AMONG SALT MARSH PLANTS , 2003 .

[30]  S. Pacala,et al.  Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change. , 2006, Journal of theoretical biology.

[31]  M. Murakami,et al.  Water temperature determines strength of top‐down control in a stream food web , 2005 .

[32]  J. Lawton,et al.  Individualistic species responses invalidate simple physiological models of community dynamics under global environmental change , 1998 .

[33]  Sander,et al.  TROPHIC LEVELS ARE DIFFERENTIALLY SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE , 2003 .

[34]  Å. Berggren,et al.  The distribution and abundance of animal populations in a climate of uncertainty , 2009 .

[35]  Anthony R. Ives,et al.  Species Response to Environmental Change: Impacts of Food Web Interactions and Evolution , 2009, Science.

[36]  Paul R. Martin,et al.  Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[37]  T. M. Bezemer,et al.  Successful range-expanding plants experience less above-ground and below-ground enemy impact , 2008, Nature.

[38]  H. Andrén,et al.  Composition of an avian guild in spatially structured habitats supports a competition–colonization trade-off , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[39]  B. Young,et al.  Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming , 2006, Nature.

[40]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[41]  Shahid Naeem,et al.  Biodiversity enhances ecosystem reliability , 1997, Nature.

[42]  M. Angilletta.  Thermal Adaptation: A Theoretical and Empirical Synthesis , 2009 .

[43]  M. Crawley,et al.  Exotic plant invasions and the enemy release hypothesis , 2002 .

[44]  Durland Fish,et al.  Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America , 2005, EcoHealth.

[45]  R. Shine,et al.  The cane toad's (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) increasing ability to invade Australia is revealed by a dynamically updated range model , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[46]  Jon Norberg,et al.  Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: A complex adaptive systems approach , 2004 .

[47]  M. Power,et al.  Species Interactions Reverse Grassland Responses to Changing Climate , 2007, Science.

[48]  K. McCann,et al.  A Mechanistic Approach for Modeling Temperature‐Dependent Consumer‐Resource Dynamics , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[49]  Geir Ottersen,et al.  Climate and the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource availability , 2007 .

[50]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary , 2000, Paleobiology.

[51]  J. P. Grime,et al.  Evidence for the Existence of Three Primary Strategies in Plants and Its Relevance to Ecological and Evolutionary Theory , 1977, The American Naturalist.

[52]  Jane Memmott,et al.  Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[53]  W. Thuiller,et al.  Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. , 2005, Ecology letters.

[54]  A. Hastings,et al.  The anatomy of predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate. , 2007, The Journal of animal ecology.

[55]  P. Daszak,et al.  Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife--threats to biodiversity and human health. , 2000, Science.

[56]  Peter Chesson,et al.  Functional tradeoffs determine species coexistence via the storage effect , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[57]  M. Luoto,et al.  Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro‐scales , 2007 .

[58]  R. Ricklefs,et al.  Host specificity of Lepidoptera in tropical and temperate forests , 2007, Nature.

[59]  J. Lawton,et al.  Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming , 1998, Nature.

[60]  Mathew A. Leibold,et al.  Metacommunities: Spatial Dynamics and Ecological Communities , 2005 .

[61]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[62]  J. Bascompte,et al.  Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. , 2008, Ecology letters.

[63]  I. Hanski,et al.  Genotypic and Environmental Effects on Flight Activity and Oviposition in the Glanville Fritillary Butterfly , 2008, The American Naturalist.

[64]  Ingolf Kühn,et al.  Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species. , 2008, Ecology.

[65]  Y. Taniguchi,et al.  CONDITION‐SPECIFIC COMPETITION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ALTITUDINAL DISTRIBUTION OF STREAM FISHES , 2000 .

[66]  Lian Pin Koh,et al.  The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists? , 2009, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[67]  M Rejmánek,et al.  Plant invasions — the role of mutualisms , 2000, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[68]  J. Travis,et al.  The Role of Abiotic Factors in Community Organization , 1991, The American Naturalist.

[69]  M B Thomas,et al.  Ecological approaches and the development of "truly integrated" pest management. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[70]  M. McPeek,et al.  The community context of species' borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives , 2005 .