Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

Abstract. The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC) on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

[1]  C. Müller,et al.  Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study , 2009 .

[2]  S. Arya,et al.  Urban modification of thunderstorms - An observational storm climatology and model case study for the Indianapolis urban region , 2011 .

[3]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution , 2010 .

[4]  David B. Lobell,et al.  Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate , 2009 .

[5]  A. Arnfield.  Two decades of urban climate research: a review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island , 2003 .

[6]  Victor Brovkin,et al.  Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia; Results from the first set of LUCID experiments , 2012 .

[7]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[8]  N. Ramankutty,et al.  Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992 , 1999 .

[9]  K. K. Goldewijk.  Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database , 2001 .

[10]  J. V. Revadekar,et al.  Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation , 2006 .

[11]  K. Findell,et al.  Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2009 .

[12]  Steven J. Phipps,et al.  Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate , 2011 .

[13]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review , 2010 .

[14]  Roger A. Pielke,et al.  The impact of agricultural intensification and irrigation on land-atmosphere interactions and Indian monsoon precipitation — A mesoscale modeling perspective , 2009 .

[15]  G. Bonan.  Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[16]  Luis Kornblueh,et al.  Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model , 2006 .

[17]  Michael J. Puma,et al.  Effects of irrigation on global climate during the 20th century , 2010 .

[18]  A. Pitman,et al.  The Impact of Land Cover Change on a Simulated Storm Event in the Sydney Basin , 2006 .

[19]  Jens Kattge,et al.  Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century? , 2007 .

[20]  Andrew J. Pitman,et al.  Attributing the impacts of land-cover changes in temperate regions on surface temperature and heat fluxes to specific causes: Results from the first LUCID set of simulations , 2012 .

[21]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe , 2006, Nature.

[22]  Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré,et al.  Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes , 2010 .

[23]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data , 2011 .

[24]  A. Pitman,et al.  Climate model simulated changes in temperature extremes due to land cover change , 2012 .

[25]  Mei Zhao,et al.  The impact of land cover change and increasing carbon dioxide on the extreme and frequency of maximum temperature and convective precipitation , 2002 .

[26]  R. Pielke.  Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus Convective rainfall , 2001 .

[27]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system , 2005 .

[28]  K. Caldeira,et al.  Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[29]  J. M. Shepherd,et al.  A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future , 2005 .

[30]  R. Vose,et al.  Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set , 2006 .

[31]  Francina Dominguez,et al.  Evidence of Enhanced Precipitation Due to Irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States , 2010 .

[32]  A. Voldoire.  Quantifying the impact of future land‐use changes against increases in GHG concentrations , 2006 .

[33]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The Soil-Precipitation Feedback: A Process Study with a Regional Climate Model , 1999 .

[34]  T. Chase,et al.  Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model , 2010 .

[35]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves , 2010 .

[36]  S. Levis,et al.  Modeling vegetation and land use in models of the Earth System , 2010 .

[37]  G. Meehl,et al.  The Importance of Land-Cover Change in Simulating Future Climates , 2005, Science.

[38]  R. Betts,et al.  Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence , 2011 .

[39]  R. Deo,et al.  Impact of historical land cover change on daily indices of climate extremes including droughts in eastern Australia , 2009 .

[40]  P. Drobinski,et al.  Effects of interactive vegetation phenology on the 2003 summer heat waves , 2012 .

[41]  A. Pitman.  The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models , 2003 .

[42]  U. C. Mohanty,et al.  Possible relation between land surface feedback and the post‐landfall structure of monsoon depressions , 2009 .

[43]  Klaus Wyser,et al.  EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[44]  A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics , 2011 .