Multistage generation and network expansion planning in distribution systems considering uncertainty and reliability

This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty and reliability in the dynamic expansion planning of distribution network assets and distributed generation. Several alternatives for the installation of feeders, transformers, and distributed generation are considered. Thus, the optimal expansion plan identifies the best alternative, location, and installation time for the candidate assets under the uncertainty related to demand and renewable energy sources. To that end, an iterative algorithm is devised to yield a pool of high-quality candidate solutions in terms of total investment and operational costs. Each candidate solution results from a stochastic-programming-based model driven by the minimization of the expected investment and operational costs. The associated scenario-based deterministic equivalent is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program for which finite convergence to optimality is guaranteed and efficient off-the-shelf software is available. Standard metrics are subsequently applied to each candidate solution to characterize its reliability so that valuable information is provided to the distribution system planner. Numerical results illustrate the effective performance of the proposed approach.