Introduction to methods of describing the forecast on the risk of failure to the means of transport

The paper is an attempt to describe the forecast on the risk of damages resulting from failures to the means of transport. It has been assumed that the product of the probability of failure (fault) occurrence and measures of effects thereof are to be used to estimate the risk. The below presented dependences that describe the risk of damages have been based on the failure rate. With the available literature as the basis, a preliminary description of the probability of a failure (fault) and the level of losses has been proposed. The paper gives dependences on short- and long-range risk forecasts. To determine the relationship for the probability of a failure (fault), the failure rate has been used.