Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

Abstract This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation. To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used. The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.

[1]  T. J. Gordon,et al.  REPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY, , 1964 .

[2]  Eric von Hippel,et al.  “Pyramiding: Efficient search for rare subjects” , 2009 .

[3]  B. Martin.  Foresight in science and technology , 1995 .

[4]  K. Blind,et al.  The impact of patents and standards on macroeconomic growth: a panel approach covering four countries and 12 sectors , 2008 .

[5]  Charles Edquist,et al.  Systems of Innovation Approaches - Their Emergence and Characteristics , 2013 .

[6]  W. E. Riggs,et al.  The Delphi technique: An experimental evaluation , 1983 .

[7]  Abraham Kaplan,et al.  The Prediction of Social and Technological Events , 1950 .

[8]  W. Sharpe.  The Sharpe Ratio , 1994 .

[9]  Jeffrey L. Furman,et al.  The Determinants of National Innovative Capacity , 2000 .

[10]  F. Fabozzi,et al.  Streetwise : the best of the Journal of portfolio management , 1998 .

[11]  Francis Narin,et al.  Is technology becoming science? , 1985, Scientometrics.

[12]  George Wright,et al.  Delphi: A reevaluation of research and theory , 1991 .

[13]  Frederick J. Parenté,et al.  An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy , 1984 .

[14]  Hariolf Grupp.  On the supplementary functions of science and technology indicators , 2005, Scientometrics.

[15]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  EFTE: An interactive Delphi method , 1985 .

[16]  Ed C. M. Noyons,et al.  How to identify research groups using publication analysis: an example in the field of nanotechnology , 2006, Scientometrics.

[17]  Henk F. Moed,et al.  Assessment of Flemish R&D in the field of information technology: A bibliometric evaluation based on publication and patent data, combined with OECD research input statistics , 1998 .

[18]  C. Duffield.  The Delphi technique: a comparison of results obtained using two expert panels. , 1993, International journal of nursing studies.

[19]  G. Welty,et al.  Communications. PROBLEMS OF SELECTING EXPERTS FOR DELPHI EXERCISES. , 1972 .

[20]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Principles of forecasting : a handbook for researchers and practitioners , 2001 .

[21]  Knut Blind,et al.  Research and standardisation in nanotechnology: evidence from Germany , 2009 .

[22]  J. Fagerberg,et al.  The Oxford handbook of innovation , 2006 .

[23]  Matthew J. Friedman,et al.  The Relative Importance of Treatment Outcomes , 1982 .

[24]  N. Dalkey,et al.  An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts , 1963 .

[25]  Linda Butler,et al.  Extending citation analysis to non-source items , 2006, Scientometrics.

[26]  Marvin A. Jolson,et al.  http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless , 2022 .

[27]  Henk F. Moed,et al.  Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology Research: The Use of Publication and Patent Statistics in Studies of S&T Systems , 2004 .

[28]  Gene Rowe,et al.  Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence , 2004 .

[29]  Eric von Hippel,et al.  'Pyramiding': Efficient Identification of Rare Subjects , 2008 .

[30]  L. G. Soete,et al.  The use of foreign patenting as an internationally comparable science and technology output indicator , 2005, Scientometrics.

[31]  Norman Crolee Dalkey,et al.  An experimental study of group opinion , 1969 .

[32]  M. Bardecki,et al.  Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective , 1984 .

[33]  Devendra Sahal,et al.  Delphi: An investigation from a Bayesian viewpoint , 1975 .

[34]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[35]  David H. Gustafson,et al.  Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes , 1976 .

[36]  G. Tassey.  Standardization in technology-based markets , 2000 .

[37]  F. Woudenberg.  An Evaluation of Delphi , 1991 .

[38]  R. Erffmeyer,et al.  The Delphi Technique: An Empirical Evaluation of the Optimal Number of Rounds , 1986 .

[39]  Gordon Welty,et al.  Problems Of Selecting Experts For Delphi Exercises , 1972 .

[40]  Andre Jungmittag,et al.  Trade and the impact of innovations and standards: the case of Germany and the UK , 2005 .

[41]  Suzanne D. Pawlowski,et al.  The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications , 2004, Inf. Manag..

[42]  George Wright,et al.  The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis , 1999 .

[43]  M. Shurmer,et al.  Standards and Trade Performance: the UK Experience , 1996 .

[44]  A. F. J. Van Raan,et al.  International comparison of technological activities and specializations: a patent-based monitoring system , 1993 .

[45]  J. Landeta.  Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences , 2006 .

[46]  Staffan Jacobsson,et al.  Innovation systems: analytical and methodological issues , 2002 .

[47]  Knut Blind,et al.  Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications , 2008 .

[48]  George Wright,et al.  The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques , 1996 .

[49]  Knut Blind,et al.  The Economics Of Standards: Theory, Evidence, Policy , 2004 .

[50]  Knut Blind,et al.  Driving forces for standardization at standardization development organizations , 2002 .

[51]  Uma G. Gupta,et al.  Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994) , 1996 .