An Estimable Dynamic Model of Recreation Behavior with an Application to Great Lakes Angling

Abstract This paper develops an estimable model of recreation behavior in which the recreation decision is cast as a dynamic programming problem. The model is illustrated with an application to salmon and trout fishing on Lake Michigan. The application considers various factors affecting the trip decision, including the expected catch, the weather, the opportunity to participate in a fishing derby, and the time elapsed since the last fishing trip. Catch is modeled as a Poisson-distributed random variable. Estimation results are promising, but a number of practical obstacles must be surmounted for the model to be regularly applied in recreation demand analysis.

[1]  Scott Milliman,et al.  Economic analysis of fishery rehabilitation under biological uncertainty: a conceptual framework and application , 1987 .

[2]  K. Wolpin,et al.  The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey , 1989 .

[3]  V. Smith.  Time and the Valuation of Environmental Resources , 1997 .

[4]  W. Douglass Shaw,et al.  A Discrete-Choice Model of Recreational Participation, Site Choice, and Activity Valuation When Complete Trip Data Are Not Available' , 1991 .

[5]  John Rust,et al.  Estimation of Dynamic Structural Models: Problems and Prospects , 1991 .

[6]  Barry L. Johnson,et al.  Evaluating fishery rehabilitation under uncertainty: A bioeconomic analysis of quota management for the Green Bay yellow perch fishery , 1992 .

[7]  D. Bromley.  Handbook of environmental economics , 1995 .

[8]  John Rust.  Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher , 1987 .

[9]  G. Schnitkey,et al.  An Empirical Model of Asset Replacement in Dairy Production , 1995 .

[10]  S. Swallow.  Intraseason Harvest Regulation for Fish and Wildlife Recreation: An Application to Fishery Policy , 1994 .

[11]  Ivar E. Strand,et al.  Measuring the Cost of Time in Recreation Demand Analysis: An Application to Sportfishing , 1981 .

[12]  Edward R. Morey,et al.  A Repeated Nested-Logit Model of Atlantic Salmon Fishing , 1993 .

[13]  P. Gill,et al.  Fortran package for nonlinear programming. User's Guide for NPSOL (Version 4. 0) , 1986 .

[14]  Mark D. Uncles,et al.  Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand , 1987 .

[15]  W. Michael Hanemann,et al.  Estimating the Value of Water Quality Improvements in a Recreational Demand Framework , 1987 .

[16]  N. Bockstael,et al.  A Random Utility Model for Sportfishing: Some Preliminary Results for Florida , 1989, Marine Resource Economics.

[17]  Kenneth E. McConnell,et al.  On-Site Time in the Demand for Recreation , 1992 .

[18]  Wiktor L. Adamowicz,et al.  HABIT FORMATION AND VARIETY SEEKING IN A DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF RECREATION DEMAND , 1994 .

[19]  J. Milon,et al.  Travel Cost Methods for Estimating the Recreational Use Benefits of Artificial Marine Habitat , 1988, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.