Mobile source emission control cost-effectiveness: Issues, uncertainties, and results

Emissions from mobile sources undoubtedly contribute to US urban air pollution problems. Consequently, mobile source control measures, ranging from vehicle emission standards to reducing vehicle travel, have been adopted or proposed to help attain air quality standards. To rank various mobile source control measures, various government agencies and private organizations calculate cost-effectiveness in dollars per ton of emissions reduced. Arguments for or against certain control measures are often made on the basis of the calculated cost-effectiveness. Yet, different studies may yield significantly different cost-effectiveness results, because of the various methodologies used and assumptions regarding the values of costs and emission reductions. Because of the methodological differences, the cost-effectiveness results may not be comparable between studies. Use of incomparable cost-effectiveness results may result in adoption of ineffective control measures. This paper first discusses some important methodological issues involved in cost-effectiveness calculation for mobile sources and proposes appropriate, systematic methods for dealing with these issues. Various studies have been completed recently to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mobile source emission control measures. These studies resulted in wide variations in the cost-effectiveness for same control measures. Methodological assumptions used in each study are presented and, based on the proposed methods for cost-effectiveness calculation, adjustments are applied to the original estimates in each study to correct inappropriate methodological assumptions and to make the studies comparable. Finally, mobile source control measures are ranked on the basis of the adjusted cost-effectiveness estimates.