Ruin problems with compounding assets

We consider a generalization of the classical model of collective risk theory. It is assumed that the cumulative income of a firm is given by a process X with stationary independent increments, and that interest is earned continuously on the firm's assets. Then Y(t), the assets of the firm at time t, can be represented by a simple path-wise integral with respect to the income process X. A general characterization is obtained for the probability r(y) that assets will ever fall to zero when the initial asset level is y (the probability of ruin). From this we obtain a general upper bound for r(y), a general solution for the case where X has no negative jumps, and explicit formulas for three particular examples. In addition, an approximation theorem is proved using the weak convergence theory for stochastic processes. This shows that if the income process is well approximated by Brownian motion with drift, then the assets process Y is well approximated by a certain diffusion process Y*, and r(y) is well approximated by a corresponding first passage probability r*(y). The diffusion Y*, which we call compounding Brownian motion, is closely related to the classical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

[1]  J. Beekman Two stochastic processes , 1974 .

[2]  L. Donald Iglehart Diffusion approximations in collective risk theory , 1969 .

[3]  G. A. Hunt SOME THEOREMS CONCERNING BROWNIAN MOTION , 1956 .

[4]  Å. Davidson On the ruin problem in the collective theory of risk under the assumption of variable safety loading , 1969 .

[5]  J. Grandell A remark on Wiener process approximation of risk processes , 1972, ASTIN Bulletin.

[6]  H. Gerber The Discounted Central Limit Theorem and its Berry-Esseen Analogue , 1971 .

[7]  J. Michael Harrison,et al.  A diffusion approximation for the ruin function of a risk process with compounding assets , 1975 .

[8]  A. Skorokhod,et al.  Studies in the theory of random processes , 1966 .

[9]  P. Meyer Probability and potentials , 1966 .

[10]  Hans U. Gerber,et al.  Games of Economic Survival with Discrete- and Continuous-Income Processes , 1972, Oper. Res..

[11]  Harald Cramér,et al.  Collective risk theory : a survey of the theory from the point of view of the theory of stochastic processes , 1955 .

[12]  C.-O. Segerdahl,et al.  Über einige risikotheoretische Fragestellungen , 1942 .

[13]  P. Billingsley,et al.  Convergence of Probability Measures , 1969 .

[14]  Ward Whitt,et al.  Stochastic Abelian and Tauberian theorems , 1972 .

[15]  Iosif Ilitch Gikhman,et al.  Introduction to the theory of random processes , 1969 .

[16]  H. Bohman,et al.  Risk theory and Wiener processes , 1972, ASTIN Bulletin.

[17]  Sze-Tsen Hu,et al.  Elements of Real Analysis , 1967 .