Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire

Abstract This paper summarizes the responses of the forecasters of the Travelers Weather Service to a questionnaire concerning probability forecasting. The questionnaire was designed to elicit information from the forecasters relative to the process of precipitation probability forecasting (e.g., the information sources examined, their relative importance and order of examination), the relationship between judgments and forecasts, the effect of the definition of precipitation on the forecasts, the meaning of the forecasts, the effects of feedback and experience on the forecasts, and related matters. The responses to the questionnaire and subsequent discussions with Travelers Weather Service and National Weather Service forecasters suggest the presence of a number of “problems” related to probability forecasting. Several of these “problems” are considered in some detail in a separate paper (Murphy and Winkler, 1971).