Estimation of reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant outbreak in Hong Kong

We present the evolution of time dependent reproduction number across the five different Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HK) epidemic waves from January, 2020, to March, 2022. We provide reliable estimation of reproduction number of Omicron variant of concern (VOC) by analysing data related to fifth wave to determine its peculiar characteristics with respect to the other VOCs. HK could be considered as the optimal model for the calculation of the dynamics of Omicron VOC transmission in an environment representative of the fully populated cities of the Asian Pacific coast. On the basis of Rt calculated for Omicron VOC in our work, researchers could refine provisional data for the current outbreak which is affecting China

[1]  Kira J M Matus,et al.  From SARS to COVID-19: the role of experience and experts in Hong Kong’s initial policy response to an emerging pandemic , 2023, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.

[2]  H. So,et al.  Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in children and adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 infection during Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong , 2023, Communications Medicine.

[3]  Ashutosh Kumar Singh,et al.  Duration of viable virus shedding in SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant infection , 2022, medRxiv.

[4]  Andrew Silver Covid-19: China’s president orders Hong Kong to control outbreak , 2022, BMJ.

[5]  J. Wallinga,et al.  Shorter serial intervals in SARS-CoV-2 cases with Omicron BA.1 variant compared with Delta variant, the Netherlands, 13 to 26 December 2021 , 2022, Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin.

[6]  Zigui Chen,et al.  Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic , 2022, Journal of Infection and Public Health.

[7]  M. Rottman,et al.  Modeling the omicron wave in France in early 2022: Balancing herd immunity with protecting the most vulnerable. , 2022, Journal of Travel Medicine.

[8]  Kimihito Ito,et al.  Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark , 2021, Journal of medical virology.

[9]  D. Kim,et al.  Serial interval and basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Korea , 2021, medRxiv.

[10]  Han-na Park,et al.  Importation and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) Variant of Concern in Korea, November 2021 , 2021, Journal of Korean medical science.

[11]  S. Karim,et al.  Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: a new chapter in the COVID-19 pandemic , 2021, The Lancet.

[12]  D. Rossi Sebastiano,et al.  COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: estimation of reproduction numbers over 2 months prior to phase 2 , 2021, Journal of public health.

[13]  Hannah Ritchie,et al.  A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations , 2021, Nature Human Behaviour.

[14]  Jian Wang,et al.  Author Correction: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 , 2020, Nature Medicine.

[15]  Eric H. Y. Lau,et al.  Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 , 2020, Nature Medicine.

[16]  Tom Britton,et al.  Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies , 2018, Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

[17]  Pierre-Yves Boëlle,et al.  The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks , 2012, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making.

[18]  J. Wallinga,et al.  Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures , 2004, American journal of epidemiology.