Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context

Subjects presented with fictitious criminal case material were found to overestimate the probabilities of compound as compared with component events. An analogy to bayesian cascaded inference behaviour was discussed. Results of functional measurement and correlational procedures suggested a three-strategy model of compound probability estimation, applicable where there are two component events. According to the model, subjects base their choice of an information processing strategy on the larger and smaller component probability assessments and on a criterion value for each.

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