A mathematical analysis of the effects of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria

We formulate a deterministic model with two latent periods in the non-constant host and vector populations, in order to theoretically assess the potential impact of personal protection, treatment and possible vaccination strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria. The thresholds and equilibria for the model are determined. The model is analysed qualitatively to determine criteria for control of a malaria epidemic and is used to compute the threshold vaccination and treatment rates necessary for community-wide control of malaria. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive number is less than unity, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproductive number less than one. From the analysis we deduce that personal protection has a positive impact on disease control but to eradicate the disease in the absence of any other control measures the efficacy and compliance should be very high. Our results show that vaccination and personal protection can suppress the transmission rates of the parasite from human to vector and vice-versa. If the treated populations are infectious then certain conditions should be satisfied for treatment to reduce the spread of malaria in a community. Among the interesting dynamical behaviours of the model, numerical simulations show a backward bifurcation which gives a challenge to the designing of effective control measures.

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