Risk of Terrorism: A Scientifically Valid Phenomenon or a Wild Guess? The Impact of Different Approaches to Risk Assessment

This article discusses different approaches to terrorism risk assessment. Different approaches to risk have different implications for communication and actions in society. The most prominent implications are the foundations of risk assessment, how risk is to be interpreted and what kind of knowledge risk pictures represent. Positivist approaches to risk assessments are contrasted with social constructivist approaches. We argue that a positivistic approach to risk legitimizes the use of worst case scenario thinking, endorsing precautionary terrorism counter measures which could lead to significant changes and hamper democratic discussions about the implementation of terrorism security measures in society. We recommend the Bayesian approach to risk analysis because this approach deals with uncertainties in a consistent way. However, there is a need to investigate the effect of risk management strategies in tackling terrorism risk. A promising point of departure could be empirical studies based on discourse analysis, as these would increase our understanding of how terrorism risk assessments are connected with power and subsequent societal perceptions of the terrorism threat.