An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end

This paper implements discrete-time survival models to ascertain the determinants behind specific endings for terrorist groups during 1970–2007. Based on multinomial logit regressions, we estimate the hazard probabilities associated with three endings for terrorist groups: splintering from internal factors, being defeated by force, and joining the political process or achieving victory. We find that different covariates differentially impact each of these endings. In a second exercise, we split our sample of 586 terrorist groups into those that started before and after the beginning of 1990. In so doing, we find that survival factors differ between the two cohorts of groups. For both exercises, the determinants of survival comprise terrorist groups’ goals, their tactics and size, and base-country characteristics. Robustness tests conclude the paper.

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